How does losing territory put Ukraine in a strong position in the negotiating table? Longer this war lasts, more territory Ukraine will lose.
The only place Ukraine is winning is in Western media.
The only place Ukraine is winning is in Western media.
Russia's currency is stronger than before the conflict, their trade surplus is larger, they are making more money from elevated energy prices, they have and will have more territory.
Europe / Germany through stupid sanctions, and talk of more, against Russian energy have inflated energy prices and now have to purchase energy in Rubles after they confiscated Russian Euro and USD foreign exchange reserves. Whereas before they could purchase all in their own currency and were in talks to expand gas supplies through Nord Stream 2, now they've cancelled that project and on the margins have to buy Rubles to buy energy.
Prediction: The pain will increase on Europe and they will realize their bread is buttered in the east, they will come to the conclusion that positive trade relations with Russia, compared to the US are more advantageous and eventually they will approve Nord Stream 2. They will do everything they can to regain the ability to buy all or most energy and commodities from Russia in Euros, meaning ending sanctions and not expanding them.
Good video describing the geopolitical dynamics of European / Russian trade relations after the war ends in Russian victory: [0]
Two months ago Russian forces controlled a greater fraction of the territory that they do now.
While wars are fundamentally unpredictable, most military experts agree that further Russian advances are extremely unlikely, and that the best result Russia can hope for is a stalemate along the front as it is right now.
Two months ago Russians were still trying to take Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk. The first one is now taken, and the second is almost taken.
> most military experts agree that further Russian advances are extremely unlikely
Most military experts you are reading maybe. Russia has been slowly and steadily continuing its advance.
You are making assertions all over the place and don't seem to care that you're getting assertion failures from all of them.
Yes, Russians didn't manage to take Kiev or Kharkiv. But that doesn't change the fact that they are making progress in the east and the south. Wars have more than one front.
https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-likely-still-wants-much-... And the thing is even if they conquer Donbas and declare victory that wont end the war since Ukraine will keep fighting to reclaim them.
Russia does not have what it takes to dissuade Ukraine from continuing to fight and they can't sustain the war effort as long, the longer the war goes the larger the Ukrainian military gets and the more hardware from the west it gets while Russia struggles with recruitment and military manufacturing under sanctions.
I know youtube videos from random people are rarely convincing but Perun has a really good one going step by step how Russia is unable to win this war just based on their difficulty with waging a long war. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ptG1IxZ08