I do need to do proper research on the models because just using my common sense it doesn't make any fucking sense...
I don't know about Sweden, but the BLS publishes their data and methodology for the CPI calculation. You can quibble about details, that's fair, but it's transparent. It's based on a basket of goods and proportional spending on those goods in the basket. In some calculations food and fuel are excluded because of volatility (controversial, for obviously reasons). Like all averages, it's not going to accurate on any individual level.
Also; this basket doesn't look at things like shrinkflation, such as the size of a snickers bar, or the number of pyramids in a Toblerone bar.
> Tittar man på den totala kostnaden för livsmedel bidrar krympflationen som mest med en årlig prisförändring på tre tiondelars procent.
> Looking at the total cost for groceries shrinkflation adds three tenths of a percentage to the yearly cost change.
https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/redaktionellt/krympflationen-...
And:
> Det är cirka två procent av livsmedlen som ändrar förpackningsstorlek under ett år. Implicita prisförändringar, eller krympflation som vissa kallar det, förklarar cirka 10 procent av de prisuppgångar som sker för förpackade livsmedel.
> It is about two percent of groceries that change packaging size every year. Implicit price changes, or shrinkflation as some call it, explains about ten percent of the price increase which happen on packaged groceries.
https://scb.se/contentassets/419935bc1ce44b43ae97ee1d5dc6f34...
From the BLS FAQ[1]:
Has the BLS removed food or energy prices in its official measure of inflation? No. The BLS publishes thousands of CPI indexes each month, including the headline All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the CPI-U for All Items Less Food and Energy. The latter series, widely referred to as the "core" CPI, is closely watched by many economic analysts and policymakers under the belief that food and energy prices are volatile and are subject to price shocks that cannot be damped through monetary policy. However, all consumer goods and services, including food and energy, are represented in the headline CPI.
Most importantly, none of the prominent legislated uses of the CPI excludes food and energy. Social security and federal retirement benefits are updated each year for inflation by the All Items CPI for Urban Wage Earners
The FAQ clarifies a bunch of other CPI misconceptions overheard regularly in internet forums.
[1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/common-misconceptions-abo...
If Food is only up 8% - it's not too hard to imagine how you could get a 7% number...
Electricity and fuel don't make up a huge portion of the average consumer's total basket of spending.
My monthly income goes to (very roughly estimated):
* 35% rent * 10% groceries * 10% other stuff (energy, internet, subscriptions) * 10% mobility * 35% savings
My rent didn't go up. Not sure if savings are part of inflation (how do you measure inflation for ETFs?). So only 30% of my income is affected by inflation, which is less than half of my spending.
Your personal inflation rate will mostly depend on if you live in a new or an old building (e.g. my heating costs are tiny because the building is new) and if you have a car (I only have a motorcycle and I take the bike to work). If you live in an old house and have to drive a fuel-inefficient car to work every day, you are screwed.
I think the current inflation is mostly about energy prices and only very little about money supply.
For a sense of inflation recently in Sweden, look instead at PPI [1]. Consumers can expect 100% of the cost increase producers see now to get passed on to them eventually.
[1] https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/pris...
If average inflation is calculated over the whole population, it’s going to be heavily weighted towards the handful of big countries, and so it indeed makes sense that the majority of countries would have higher than average inflation.
Swedish households are extremely sensitive to interest rates, so there are big incentives to make the numbers smaller.
Also inflation numbers are usually reported comparing the difference in the last 12 months, you are probably thinking about the pre-pandemic prices so you'll have to add them up.