This is a very real possibility in the next 18 months. Even if Russia stops attacking Ukraine, we have plenty of money that the fed is going to drain out of the economy. QT has barely even started yet. I'm not saying it is a certainty, but the chances are uncomfortably high that we will have a "hard landing", including high unemployment and a stagnant economy due to high borrowing costs.
> dearth of new construction
People thought we had a shortage of homes in 2005 as well. The market crashed and suddenly we did not. Supply is a function of what people are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept to relocate.
> You will not get this good a deal
Absolutely. Rates jumped 0.5% on Friday alone as the mortgage backed security market went "no-bid"(no one was willing to buy the securitized mortgages at current rates).
> If my real estate is at risk from rising rates and falling asset prices, it has lots of company.
This is not a good strategy to manage your money but you do you. Fortunately you do have tax advantages as a home owner so that does work in your favor vs other asset classes. This may not make sense for many people though.
I'll say though that buying a home may turn out to be a wise move if you can keep making the payments and things recover. It is likely that we will continue to see inflation above the target rate because the fed is trapped between its mandates and the financial insolvency of the US government(currently running $1T USD deficits annually, and that after a spike in tax receipts due to asset inflation).