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Comment by donkeyd | Hacker News Reader

The funny thing to me is that the BTC promoters keep talking about the blockchain being used to pay for stuff, like the occasional Tesla, or bananas in third world countries. However, last time I checked, about 90% of transactions involving BTC happened off the blockchain. It happened in marketplaces where no actual crypto is transacted and it's all in the databases of these marketplaces. The value of BTC has nothing to do with the actual use of the Bitcoin Blockchain.

If anything, the ETH blockchain might have more value in the real world, since it's used to transact stupid monkey pictures and stuff like that.

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This is shortsighted and won’t age well. Consider the world in 2030. Another 8 years of advancements into bitcoin infrastructure, point of sale devices, mobile wallet integrations, etc

Plus failed central banks, failed paper currencies, etc

Bitcoin's first block dates back to January 2009, or 13 years. POS devices have existed since, at least, 2017, or five years. Despite that people are using crypto less as a currency today than they ever have. What are the next 8 years going to bring us that the past 13 haven't?

It seems like as time goes on crypto becomes less useful rather than more as a general utility for buying stuff. Most crypto "currencies" are also a not a great store of value currently.

Just for context, the Ukrainian Hryvnia has lost less value since the Russian invasion than bitcoin has lost today. A financial system more volatile than the economy of a country outmatched in a war with a superpower, is perhaps, not a system you want doing things that require stability.

> It seems like as time goes on crypto becomes less useful rather than more as a general utility for buying stuff.

I said: Bitcoin. Not crypto.

(The longer I’m in this space, the more I realize that scammy crypto is one of the biggest enemies of bitcoin adoption.)

It may seem this way to you but you’re clearly not paying enough attention. Adoption curve is up. Many advancements have been and continue to be made on the front of consumer products. Let’s face it, companies like Square will drive mainstream usage. Consumer products will only get better and better and over time will be on par with products that use the dollar under the hood.

My arguments is even less generous and more applicable if you scope it only to BTC. Bitcoin as a common currency is basically a non existent use case for most people.

So let me amend my argument: It seems like as time goes on, bitcoin specifically, has seen decreased general use as anything but a speculative greater-fool investment. As far as I can tell, the only people that use bitcoin as a currency are 1. trying to prove a point, or 2. doing illegal shit. That used to be less true 5 years ago.

Why would square drive mainstream usage? Square needs people on both sides of the transaction to have already adopted in order to drive business.

Only another 8 years, eh? Does this assume a ceteris paribus scenario where Apple, Google, Visa, MC, PayPal stand still on infrastructure and mobile wallets?

I didn’t mean to suggest 8 years was required and only arbitrarily picked 2030 as a round number.

I suspect that Apple, Google, visa, MC, and PayPal will continue to build bitcoin into their product.

Bitcoin does not compete at all with these companies. Just like the US dollar is not a competitor to Apple, visa, etc. these are products that incorporate currencies.

ApplePay is literally a payment system.

Correct. What’s your point?

ApplePay is not a currency.

As long as the primary reason for holding BTC is to make USD, it will never be a viable currency

Now this I totally agree with. BTC only realizes its true potential when it replaces the dollar. It may have some more boom/bust cycles to go before it gets there but it’s the top contender to do so.

BTC will never replace the dollar, the US gov will shut it down before it does so as it’s not considered legal tender here. Same with every other country that wishes to maintain some control over their economy (all of the smart ones)

Failed central banks? Can you elaborate?

Yes here is an example happening in real-time: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/06/13/business/yen-13...

I suspect it’s going to be a domino effect that gets much much worse..

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