If inflation's so bad, why are gold and Bitcoin not posting massive gains?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-5US4J03Wo 13:00 mark.
Interest rates being higher means: get your money out of that speculative crap and into something where you can take advantage of the higher rates.
But also because Bitcoin isn't what its advocates claim it is? It's speculation, not currency. Not a hedge against inflation.
In fact it's inflated worse than USD. Worth 40% less than it was a year ago.
At some point if/when this course of action becomes untenable due to recession/unemployment/too high interest rates given amount of debt in economy, and Fed reverses course (which they did much earlier last tightening cycle in 2018 when markets tanked), those two assets should rise again. Gold particularly falls when real interest rates rise. But, it is likely they are more serious about taking assets down and essentially inducing a recession given the persistent high inflation. The result of fighting that to any real degree means everything keeps going down...which is literally their goal (the reverse wealth affect to slow inflation).
Right now unemployment is under 4%. The Fed has a lot of leeway to raise rates before what they are doing affects employment, and I'm not sure at all that they will allow unemployment to get too high, if they can help it.
If you want short-term inflation protection, add some commodities to your portfolio.
BTC will trend perfectly inline with stock valuations as a function of excess liquidity, kind of indicating they are not what they are supposed to be.
They are a fun speculative instrument, when things get tough, people stop pretending and move onto other things.
That may change, but unlikely.
I see a future crypto 'mapped' to the real world in the future some how, not fully but only partically decentralized, that could work.
He said virtually the same as you..
I said 'pay' I meant to say 'invest'.
BTC should be counter cyclical to stocks, but my bet is that they won't be.
It'll be up during 'fun times' and down during 'scary times' whereas by design it should be the opposite. That could change if something about BTC becomes institutionalized, i.e. everywhere starts accepting BTC for Oil or something but I doubt that will happen.
Probably not stocks, but maybe actually some value stocks.
My point is just that BTC is not a safe haven from stocks.
A friend ran a successful small investment fund, and still went out of business during the last down turn because all his clients had to pull their money out to cover losses elsewhere.
It is the snakeoil people who promised that and gullible idiots believed/memed/tiktoked that.
A plot of land in rural Arkansas has been stable irrespective of Money Supply. The value of grain of sand on the beaches of South Carolina have been same.
OTOH, Bitcoin is not an hard asset :)
Hard/Soft classification are used by naive doomer-preppers (aka Peter Schiff). Assets are things that produce cash flow, rest is speculative. That's why the beanie baby (a "hard asset") that you bought in 1999 hasn't beaten inflation
If nominal, Venezuelan bolívars are the way to go.
If inflation-adjusted, maybe you're on to something, but still depends how you measure inflation.