Kind of like how child mortality in car crashes has decreased below gunshot deaths. And all other pediatric causes of death are now dwarfed by those two.
Not obvious to me that's the cause, or even the nature of the changes you are suggesting a) happened and b) are the cause. Citation?
> For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. ... “The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his “leading hypothesis”.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-eff...
> From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. ... Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests.
https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim...
Famed Harvard economist Roland Fryer looked at cities that had a major BLM shooting and found a sharp increase in homicides and other felonies (900 additional homicides and 34k additional felonies over the course of a few months) compared with the same cities prior to their BLM shootings and compared with other cities which didn't have a BLM shooting. "The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the [police shooting] investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%."
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working\_papers/w27324/w27...
However, I'd say from these that it's not clear that observed effects are the result of "changes in policing"; it's a hypothesis, sure, but not with close to the level of confidence you suggest.
The Vox article acknowledges this:
> This is where things get more speculative… We don’t know why BLM protests correlated with an increase in the murder rate, and there’s not a lot of research in this space to help guide us.
and also:
> The good news is that even if Campbell’s finding about the increase in murders following BLM protests holds up to further scrutiny, the effect doesn’t appear to last for long. By year four, Campbell no longer observes a statistically significant increase in murders,
The Guardian article:
> Even if the increase in homicide is significant, there are many competing theories for what may be responsible.
The nber.org URL does not resolve for me.
I guess it would be interesting to compare places with "police-involved shooting" that did NOT have major protests, with those that had such shootings and protests, if the hypothesis is that it was the protests that somehow resulted in... changes in policing... so actually, if the hypothesis is changes in policing, why not actually try to measure _changes in policing_ and correlate to homicide rate, instead of correlating protests and murders and assuming "changing in policing" resulted from the protests as an unmeasured middle step?
Yes, because a lot of these studies were from the early days of the BLM riots. Things have solidified in the intervening half decade (although there's some uncertainty about how much of the 2020 surge is attributable to policing versus the pandemic, but I don't think anyone seriously doubts changes in policing played no role at all especially considering the homicide uptick begins promptly and dramatically after May 25, 2000). I don't think there are any remaining hypotheses (there is at least one niche hypothesis that is still a variant of the Ferguson effect--that the protests have caused communities to lose trust in police--but most studies refute it or find no evidence of it).
Here's the nber.org link again (I had to do some manual formatting edits when I copy/pasted, and I flubbed this link apparently): https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w273...
> f the hypothesis is that it was the protests that somehow resulted in... changes in policing... so actually, if the hypothesis is changes in policing, why not actually try to measure _changes in policing_ and correlate to homicide rate, instead of correlating protests and murders and assuming "changing in policing" resulted from the protests as an unmeasured middle step?
This is precisely what many of these studies do--they find reductions in policing and increases in murder rates. If you read the paragraph above the nber.org link, that's exactly what I describe.
https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/jour...
I don’t know why. It might just be random variance, but it’s possible fewer drivers on the roads meant higher speeds or something. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...
edit: Ty!
edit2: ouch at that firearm suicide number jump
https://www.webmd.com/children/news/20220422/guns-now-leadin...