Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Fed Rate Hike today – 50, 75 or 100 BPS?

31 pointsaruanavekar14 comments

Any predictions on how Fed will react and the possible impacts and outcomes of the Fed rate hike?

Expectations are overwhelmingly for 75bps. Prior to yesterday, 50bps was expected.

- https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to...

Exactly. Not sure what the point of these articles are with the futures implied probability.

The probability right now of 225-250 for July is incredible as well.

Treasuries historic extreme overbought. Perhaps peak? Retreated in Fed expectation for 75bp hike now and july priced in. Thats massive tightening! No need for panic, just a bumpy landing. Just realize inflation is beyond any one institution's control and we now have competition. Alternate monetary tools in synthetic and digital currencies designed to stabilize prices ;)

https://quotes.ino.com/charting/?s=CBOT_ZN.M22

The WSJ and some investment banks have said 75bp is likely. That's my guess, although 50bp is also possible. The Fed does not like to shock the markets, so I think 100bp is very unlikely.

I wonder how high Fed Funds will have to go. The Fed Funds futures market prices a 3.8% rate by May 2027. Historically, Fed Funds has risen to at least the level of inflation, which is currently 8.6%, during a tightening cycle.

50bps. Fed rarely surprises the market (so either 50bps or 75bps) plus 50bps gives the market a bit of breath that it needs, given that it got hammered pretty badly.

it is 75 and so far stocks are up

Yeah I got the rate wrong :(

0.75 after all https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-meeting-int...

def 50 bps. i will be very shocked if it is not 50bps. NOw, 0.75bps is questionable but given how behind fed is it is probable but they are in the business post '08 of not surprisng the market.

Well prepare to be shocked then.

are you shocked

very much so after all the appeasing by Mr. Powell that 0.75 is dramatic. This u-turn makes me nervous because 1. he said inflation was transitory 2. oh, we wont' raise interest rate fast 3. crap, we are behind lets go 0.50bps 4. my god, we are really really behind, lets go 0.75bps and mother of all 5. no recession here, economy is strong, solid job #. Recession is coming folks.

you should be shocked right now!

Pretty sure it will be 75bps at this point. Bank of Canada will be making the same move in July.

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