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The Fed has shown they cannot plan 3 years in the future.

The odds they won't find an excuse to reverse course within 3 years seems low.

They talked about reducing the balance sheet for almost a decade and barely made a dent before more than doubling it during the Pandemic.

I will be shocked if in 5 years the Fed's balance sheet isn't substantially higher than it is now.

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I've also found it quite hard to predict things, especially about the future. So I have a hard time being mad at the fed on that account.

If anyone that worked at the fed could predict the future, they wouldn’t work at the fed.

The future is notoriously difficult to predict.

The dark side clouds everything. Impossible to see, the future is.

We should focus on easier tasks and build up to it. First we should try to predict the past accurately. Once we're comfortable with that maybe we can move on to predicting the present.

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