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Comment by dragontamer | Hacker News Reader

This last cycle was supported by literal celebrities and a legion of Super Bowl commercials.

There's no one else to "grow" the audience anymore. Cryptocoins are 100% within the mainstream consciousness.

There are now three kinds of people out there:

1. People who know about Cryptocoins and never trusted them. (They saw the superbowl commercials and decided it was stupid).

2. People who bought in within the last 2 years (because of the big advertising spree) and only know what a 60% loss on their assets feels like.

3. People who bought in _before_ the last 2 years, a very, very small minority of people.

#3 is not enough to return BTC to $60,000+ heights. And with #1 and #2 distrusting the coin now, I dare say its over.

Type #4: "ignorant" people who haven't heard of BTC yet, are completely non-existent now. Superbowl commercials, Cable News, Facebook ads, and more have ensured that everyone has heard of this by now.

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You've done that thing where you think the Anglosphere is the whole world when it's really something like 10%. There's plenty of room for growth.

Care to tell me where in the world you think BTC has a chance?

El Salvador? Hong Kong with Three Arrow's Capital collapse? Russia with its collapsing economy?

I admit I'm ignorant about many parts of the world. But the parts of the world that "matter" with regards to propping up the price of BTC, are the parts that have money. That narrows the list significantly.

* In Asia, there's China, Singapore, Japan, Philippines and a few others. I'm watching anime make fun of Blockchain (Japan), Three Arrows Capital blow up in Hong Kong, and Axie Infinity completely screw over working class Filipinos.

* Europe largely knows English and are just adjacent to the Anglosphere. (I'd expect the French and Germans etc. etc. to know about this whole crypto-nonsense by now as well)

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I guess I'm ignorant about India and some other corners of the world (and Indians know a lot about English anyway and would be adjacent).

Who in the world do you think can be brought into this cryptocoin nonsense now? Where can the cryptocoin world find "new converts", who have enough money to make a difference?

It's about understanding bitcoin. As long as more people understand it, more people will buy it. I've never seen anyone who understands bitcoin, but doesn't buy it. Especially in bear markets, people will focus more on learning what's it about, rather than speculating on the price.

All the 'crypto' stuff can go. This is the opposite. When people understand them, they'll sell.

I suppose you haven’t seen me per se, but I understand Bitcoin and the closest I’ve gotten to buying it was BITO puts 2 weeks ago.

Then you don't really understand it :)

But, if you're a trader and know what you're doing, taking advantage of bear markets is fine of course.

> Then you don't really understand it

I think I've figured out why you've never met one of these people.

Even in a third-world country like the Philippines, Bitcoin is already well-known with a local exchange (Coins.ph) operating locally.

Majority of people who would want to invest in Bitcoin has already done so.

> Majority of people who would want to invest in Bitcoin has already done so.

How do you know that? Why can't the market grow as time passes?

Because of the shear size of advertisements this past year on the subject.

In the USA, you cannot get "more popular" than a superbowl advertisement. And there were dozens of Superbowl ads on cryptocoin this past year.

So it's over for Coca Cola, McDonald's, and Nike?

You've fundamentally mistaken what those large companies are. They're basically dividend stocks, not growth stocks. No one is expecting them to grow much.

Those companies make money with their customer base. Coca Cola has the ability to turn 40-cents worth of water, sugar, and flavors into $1 dollar worth of sales. Not only that, but customers are happy with this exchange (and will likely keep making this exchange... at least until people stop liking the taste of sugar).

Even without growth, those companies are insanely profitable. Because Coca Cola has a 3% dividend (and its assets are likely inflation-protected), they're a very safe bet.

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BTC makes no profits. In fact, the entire BTC system consumes tons of electricity constantly. So we can see that moving BTC around costs real resources, but no one seems to have explained to me where "money comes from", aside from a greater-fool.

Your argument is that at some point growth stops or stagnates. But most people in the world don't hold cryptocurrency -- yet they know about it. It's a huge market. And that market will be tapped by marketers and advertisers.

> BTC makes no profits. In fact, the entire BTC system consumes tons of electricity constantly. So we can see that moving BTC around costs real resources, but no one seems to have explained to me where "money comes from", aside from a greater-fool.

Transaction fees.

My point, is that all of my friends who have lost money as Celsius and/or Gemini locks up, are going to become distrusting of Bitcoin and cryptocoins in general.

You had your best shot at converting them last year, when they were ignorant, and hadn't lost $10,000+ on it yet. Today, they're going to be mad at their losses, the lies, and the fraud, and the outright stealing / locking of accounts.

The people in category #2 are almost certainly, permanently, lost. You can't just play with people's savings like this and expect them to trust you.

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This isn't like a "normal cryptocoin crash". Celsius, and now Gemini, account holders are unable to withdraw funds. Who knows how far this financial-contagion will spread?

What's going on right now is a fundamental loss-of-trust.

The price goes up, the price goes down. That's not the important bit. Locking down accounts and destroying goodwill is the problem with this crash.

Where is your proof that Gemini is insolvent?

Your friends sound like degenerate gamblers. What does that have to do with having a balanced portfolio with a percentage in crypto? More people are going to do this.

Investing in crypto doesn’t mean having all your wealth in it.

Wow. A bit nervous, aren't ya?

I said "locks up". Celsius is likely insolvent. Gemini is only at the stage where there are withdrawal issues.

BTC probably has to drop a bit more before Gemini collapses and/or becomes insolvent, but the issues have begun (like Binance). The other crypto-lenders all locked up like this as BTC dropped from $30k to $20k, it looks like Gemini is stronger but its beginning to have withdrawal issues now.

If BTC keeps crashing, other crypto-lenders (including Gemini) will be wrecked. Its just the nature of how those systems work.

Why would I be nervous? I don’t hold bitcoin and don’t have anything on exchanges. Are you projecting some of your nervous energy?

Gemini doesn’t have withdrawal issues. Misinformation only makes your position look weak.

Crypto exchanges always run into platform issues when volume is high. Everyone claims it’s a giant conspiracy because 10x engineers could never fuck up this bad. Well, they can and do.

Your claim Binance is going under is laughable as well. You have zero understanding of this market.

> Gemini doesn’t have withdrawal issues.

Sure thing bud.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/vf6spv/gemi...

> Crypto exchanges always run into platform issues when volume is high.

They also seem to be running into platform issues when they're running out of money.

Volume was high on the way up. Volume on the way down is... much less than before. Coinbase (and others) have laid off thousands of workers because BTC volume has declined precipitously.

This ain't a volume problem. They're just pretending its volume.

Wow, reddit comments. Great source.

Cashed our 7 figures last year. I’m good.

Wasn't China a huge market for cryptocurrencies for most of the last 2 waves? My Indian coworkers indicate it's big back home too. So now with the west, india, and china, we're at 50% of the world.

Your argument is that bitcoin has no growth potential in India? They have 1.3 billion people.

To the extent it has grown previously? Why would the factors above in dragontamer's post not apply there as much as the west?

e.g. it's not like Indian celebrities haven't been hyping crypto like western celebrities: https://www.ndtv.com/business/bollywood-stars-endorse-crypto...

"The West" has about a billion population also (370m USA+CA, 600m Europe minus Russia, 30m AUS/NZ). That's not inherently a reason for crypto have potential for another boom cycle here, nor is it inherently the same in India.

These comments assume that 1.3 billion people have made a decision on Bitcoin and they will hold this position until death. It also assumes the people that have invested already won't invest more as their careers progress.

Add in South Africa and Nigeria. Massive there, massive. There will be real pain as a result, a lot of kids are going to miss out on new shoes and birthday presents for quite a few years. Mention of crypto will likely precipitate a family fight - I do not see a way back from this.

Not at all to doubt this -- can you point to any quantitative reporting?

https://news.bitcoin.com/study-7-6-million-south-africans-ar...

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jul/31/out-of-co...

You've done that thing where you assume the non-Anglosphere is ignorant of crypto. In reality they know that the whole scheme _really_ benefits.

> Cryptocoins are 100% within the mainstream consciousness.

This is the biggest problem for crypto skeptics.

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