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Comment by mgamache | Hacker News Reader

We'll see, but the HODLers are not selling (AFAIK). A lot of this latest deep pullback was driven by over-leverage and margin calls on BTC backed DeFi (like Celsius). The margin calls on staking tokens in particular are a new factor adding to volatility.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/06/14/staked-ether-bec...

https://cryptoslate.com/blockfi-liquidates-major-counterpart...

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We'll see, but the HODLers are not selling (AFAIK)

This seems like a "no true Scotsman" statement. If someone sells then by definition they're not a HODLer any more, no matter how much they espoused those views in the past.

This comment put a huge grin on my face. "Tautologically, holders will never sell!"

It's tautological, but mostly from poor construction. The crashes like this have a lot of forced selling, both from margin calls and LP/depositor redemptions. Two factors contributing to this are algorithmic leverage (DeFi and otherwise), and the combination of high volatility and decent liquidity meaning mark-to-market is both very easy and very painful.

"HODLer" as a term is not clearly defined, but usually refers to the sort of off-exchange spot position that allows ignoring moves like this. High-uncertainty events like country bans and network attacks drive people like that to sell, but this current crash is basically purely liquidity related and in line with similar assets. Selling is driven mostly by short-term expectations, not long-term viability.

HODLers are not defined by an external source. They are self-defined. It's like saying 'Catholics are leaving the Church'. And you say: 'Well if they leave the church they aren't Catholics". That doesn't make sense. The phase 'leaving the church' still has meaning and we know what it means.

Indeed. Anyone who did their research was already expecting the high likelihood of several years of prices being down 80~90% and either already sold or are expecting things to go up again in x years.

I'm both surprised and disappointed in the businesses who should have known better than to already be underwater.

It’s EXTREMELY different to talk about possibility of your investment in highly speculative asset going down, vs actually experiencing it and seeing your money disappear.

Yes, that's why the term 'Diamond Hands' is used by the hard core.

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