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> Mining is decentralized

To me, it appears more that mining is effectively centralized in an oligopoly of mining pools, and that there's an increasing tendency towards this, compare [1] in this thread.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31796847

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That's because you don't understand how mining pools work

It doesn't appear so that everyone would be free to setup their self-sustained rigg and frolic on their own with realistic prospects, as the mantra of "decentralized" (as opposed to a structured environment) alleges. At least, not at a scale that would be decisive for the entire network. Meaning, there's that structured aspect and individual miners come second to this.

But can that oligopoly collude enough to actually run a 51% attack against the network?

I guess, as is, there are sufficient incentives against this, as pointed out by the linked comment. Generally speaking, when the economic pressure increases, the pressure to cooperate may increase, as well. Which may turn out both ways. (Meaning: I really don't know, and I'm not sure anyone may know for sure. Sorry for the Socratic anticlimax.) Said paper suggests that there are incentives for colluding against the system while protecting it at the same time.

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