S&P 500 May Have Another 24% to Fall, 150 Years of Market History Shows

I’m personally very bearish on any consumer focused company that couldn’t turn a profit in 2020-21. You couldn’t have asked for better conditions to make money than these two years.

If your food delivery startup, for instance, couldn’t turn a profit when your entire customer base was sitting at home, your delivery partners had limited work alternatives, and your restaurant partners had limited bargaining power, how can it turn a profit now when your customers are back in the office, better jobs abound, and restaurants have dine-in customers to look forward to?

25% drop from the current level bring us to the levels of 2018. SP500 was considered highly priced already back then based on P/E and or stock market capitalization-to-GDP.

With current inflation the nominal drop will be significantly smaller than drop in real value. Free cash flow is the king.

I saw a joke the other day that someone bought green tinted glasses to see their holdings in green. I feel I am really going to need those.