Driverless robotaxi fleet paralyzed for hours in San Francisco
thelastdriverlicenseholder.com
thelastdriverlicenseholder.com
The supposed smart cars can't even talk to each-other directly 'without internet' to warn of a car pileup! They can't report to city traffic control about their condition.
We should be innovating in infrastructure instead - create standardised computer readable infrared road markings, equip each traffic light and each lamp post with a radio beacon, each crash barrier could have a radio marker, create PUBLIC maps of each city, have a central traffic control sypercomputer in each city provide directions to cars. Have each car painted with infrared markers so they recognise each-other. Provide cyclists with something these cars can recognise.
We could even make radar-reflective pants so that autonomous cars see them better.
the whoe traffic system needs to be looked at and brought to a new set of standards, whatever they may be. I am not sure what they are, but it should be clear to anyome with half a brain thay having a car use a camera to tell if the traffic light is red or green is idiotic.
untill a new system is ready, no car without AGI level ai will ever be safe
The only problem is that such collective approach conflicts with the way VCs work.
Well, the main issue is that most of the cars on the road during the busiest hours have just 1 person in them.
I think when the dust finally settles, the main form of passenger transit in urban-ish areas will basically be something that looks like autonomous vans.
Unlike public transit today, they won't have predefined timetables, nor predefined startpoints and endpoints. They'll pick you up wherever you are, whenever you want, and drop you off wherever you want, but they might take a roundabout way to get there to pick up and drop off other passengers too.
If they usually have 2+ people in them at a time, we'll be able to use our existing infrastructure (roads) at a much higher throughout.
I think reusing car-based infrastructure with busses is an important step in transitioning away from car dependency, but roads are not permanent. In many parts of America, trams and railways were torn down to be replaced by roads. The roads can be replaced too, if it is clear that alternatives are better.
Plus, roads are destroyed incredibly quickly by cars and busses, so they will need replacing eventually, whereas rail is much more resilient.
It seems to me that rail-based transport is much more effective in dense urban environments.
In other words, why does making the car driverless suddenly make everybody want to use it?
EDIT clarification: Accessibility for wheelchair users, blind people, and anyone with ambulatory restrictions. Most stations are not wheelchair accessible to the train and having to go on much longer routes to compensate is not equal access. And many 'encouraging other use' initiatives block all cars, leaving these people in the lurch. Something that gave door-to-door access to everyone, equally, via a fleet of cars, could be superior.
I don’t get the accessibility angle at all. It’s a non-issue because you will have a very hard time finding people who have issues with exceptions for accessibility. That would still reduce the need for car infrastructure massively.
The thing is, we need to start building the future right now, right here and massively. That means public transportation centric development (= building public transport to nowhere and letting the area develop alongside the walksheds with appropriate mixed use zoning) and actually being brave enough to re-structure existing solutions along those lines. That all isn’t magic, we just need to do it. We know it works, it doesn’t require any technological breakthroughs.
At the moment, neither are self-driving cars sufficiently capable to replace human drivers.
We're chasing a future tech dream when we already have technology that can solve the problems we are facing right now.
Edit: What do you mean by "accessible"? The London underground and generally public transport in the UK works very well. Speaking after having lived there for 15 years, studying and working in London and a smaller town, and never having owed a car.
As a thought experiment, we have no cars other than emergency vehicles and some commercial vehicles occasionally. Everyone is able to walk to 90% of destinations, and bike or public transport the last 10%. It would be easier to have people who can't walk well in small electric personal transport devices (wheel chairs, segway, electric bikes, motorized scooters seen at walmart) that if they crash do not pose any threat to anyone. Surely adding wheel chair accessible elevators to train stops for public transit, is easier than building out entire car centris highway infrastructure that requires continuous expensive maintenance. Public transit and walking is already more accessible to the blind than automobiles, that is a nil point.
To respond in a sentence: first, you have no proof that "investing in infrastructure" would actually yield working autonomous cars. Second, there are no proof either that the current approaches are doomed to fail.
To respond in details: everything that you propose doesn't seem to be able to solve the main challenges that self-driving cars are facing. These challenges are all about edge-cases, and responding safely to changing conditions and misbehaviors from other agents. The response cannot be "let's add a ton of fragile electronics in all of the infrastructure" because this: will cost a ton of money to build and maintain, will break in weird ways over time and lead to cascading failures, and most importantly: it's dubious that it would even work at all.
The final comment about VCs is weird: a lot of actors in this field are not VC backed startups.
My opinion is: Tesla might have a working model that outperform human drivers in 10 years (50% confidence)
Self driving car has failed to detect a person in the dark and killed her. It was demonstrated that Tesla autopilot fails to detect a child crossing the road. It confused a semi trailer and an underpass. You call that an edge case?
> The response cannot be "let's add a ton of fragile electronics in all of the infrastructure"
So instead we will add a ton of fragile electronics in every car. Instead of having 3 optimally positioned lidars monitoring an intersection, we will have 20 poorly positioned lidars on every car.
You don't need electronis, you can use paint. You can put QR codes that tell a car where it is in an underground parking lot. If we add a parrern to all clothing in infrared-only paint, that would help various AI detect people and tell them apart from surroundings. You can put a metal patterns on street signs that are detected by automotive radar.
> will cost a ton of money to build and maintain
And electronics in the cars will cost even more
> will break in weird ways over time and lead to cascading failures
You mean like the failure the main article is discussing right now?
> it's dubious that it would even work at all
And it's dubious this 'individual' approach will ever work. Every single argument you've made equally applies to the approach you are advocating.
I was going to say about 30,000 per year in the US, but it’s actually up above 40,000 per year now.
[1] - https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/early-estimate-2021-tra...
Build some trains, build some bike lanes, and leave the people alone who don’t want their transportation and the downstream reasons people use it taken over by tech.
Governance by a central cybernetic super computer and all the cybernetic hypothesis coming true. Good lord.
That unfortunately puts it right in line with every other tech-heavy thing taxpayers have have to pony up for this century.
I may sound like a Luddite but I recall being able to go out in NYC without needing to QR-code scan my way through daily life.
> create standardised computer readable infrared road markings, equip each traffic light and each lamp post with a radio beacon, each crash barrier could have a radio marker, create PUBLIC maps of each city, have a central traffic control sypercomputer in each city provide directions to cars. Have each car painted with infrared markers so they recognise each-other.
It is amazing how often tech savy folks can reinvent trains.
So I expect reasonable self driving cars to be common in depeloped nations in 2050, while AGI will be just as elusive.
In a similar vein, the correct solution to electric trucks is not giant batteries, it's simply overhead wires:
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/29/uk-to-study-using-overhead-w...
- This by far in my opinion is the single most important attribute of any autonomous fleet of vehicles that is needed. There should be first of all a standard of communication via RFC defined for autonomous vehicles and drones. Any vendor manufacturing autonomous vehicles or drones should follow this standard of communication and be able to communicate to each other with the primary objective of avoiding collisions. This should be a RFC so that it works across vendors and is as standardized as TCP/IP. Communication medium can be over radio frequencies as well as the internet and can work as backup of each other but first there should be a established standard that all vendors adheres to.
Vehicles should assess and plan driving from first principles and physical sensory inputs. Networked inputs could be helpful as augmentation but it's not something one should rely on at all. Kind of like you shouldn't take a human showing/not showing a turn for a reliable signal of intent.
BTW being opinionated is fine but no need to downvote
https://old.reddit.com/r/Garmin/comments/vo17e2/the_magnetic...
> at least a dozen autonomous Chevrolet Bolts from GM Cruise Automation were spotted blocking the intersection at Gough Street and Fulton Street for a couple of hours, according to reddit user seansinha.
There must be something weird about that intersection that is causing a bug.
You are a lot more confident than me that this isn't the case.
Tesla cars „can” drive you „safely” without connection to the network.
Some say that discard of lidar was a huge mistake by Elon, but he knows very well that this is not the way to go forward.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...
But that aside, I'd really hope that these cars are using professional WAAS-capable GPS receivers. Short of a major X-class flare which knocks out the WAAS geostationary satellites, the entire point of the system is to correct for these kinds of disturbances to the GPS signals.
I actually haven't looked at this data for quite a while. I didn't consider the start of the Ukraine war a good reason to start looking at my data, and I delete it after 30 days to save $$$ on block storage. Dumb. (I added some proper downsampling today so I can keep it forever at reasonable cost.)
Trusting my own data is always suspicious, so I clicked around randomly on the NYS Spatial Reference Network website (https://cors.dot.ny.gov/; the title of the page is "Shop", but accounts and RTK access are free). They operate a bunch of Continuously Operating Reference Stations and publish statistics about the accuracy. I do see a lot of reported GLONASS cycle slips today. I have no idea if that is normal or not; this is the first time I've ever dug that deeply into station stats. But overall, the position accuracy at the stations I spot-checked are within .5cm, which is normal. (Most use 4 constellations; GPS, GLONASS, Beidou, Galileo; on 2 bands. So even if GLONASS is broken today, one constellation is enough for good accuracy.)
If the government has degraded GPS accuracy today as many commenters think have happened, many people would have noticed. The reference stations have known positions; if GPS starts saying they're somewhere else, that's impossible and would be flagged. GPS being significantly degraded would probably be front page news; not just noticed by a few exercise tracking enthusiasts on Reddit. Or maybe it's all a big conspiracy and the US and Russia banded together to hack my database and the NYS spatial reference network. It could happen, I guess, but my non expert opinion is that GPS is fine right now.
You can see that there isn't any significant interference visible in the Bay area, or the rest of the United states except for the typical activity in and around military ranges—That huge region in New Mexico experiencing moderate interference is not typical, but seems to correspond with planned testing around White Sands Missile Range, according to an FAA NOTAM[1].
It’s possible that my methodology wouldn’t pick up interference if it’s caused by a low-power jammer or some source of EFI that only has an effect within a few hundred feet.
More details on the methodology behind those maps:
The ADS-B signals that many aircraft broadcast include not just the aircraft's GPS positions, but also a measure of GPS accuracy (strictly speaking, ADS-B doesn't talk about GPS specifically and can handle any sort of navigation technology; I'm sure there are some planes out there reporting positions based on inertial navigation systems, with correspondingly low accuracy, or GLONASS-derived positions, or whatever, but my understanding is that right now something on the order of 99% of aircraft with ADS-B are using good old GPS so I'll just keep using the term GPS in this description). If you go to https://globe.adsbexchange.com and click on just about any aircraft, you'll see an info sidebar on the left of the screen. Scroll down until you see the ACCURACY section, and you'll see values labeled NACp, SIL, NACv, NICbaro, and Rc. Those are all self-reported measures of the accuracy of the data being sent by the aircraft[2]. NACp is "Navigation Accuracy Category for position", and is a good measure of whether the aircraft's GPS is working well. (A somewhat obscure feature of ADS-B Exchange lets you see a map of all aircraft that are currently reporting poor navigation accuracy for their GPS: https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?badgps)
To make the maps, I process a day's worth of data from ADS-B Exchange to find all the aircraft reporting poor navigation accuracy and then I color map hexes (using H3 hexes) according to the proportion of aircraft passing through that hex that reported bad GPS accuracy. Specifically, I'm counting an aircraft as experiencing "interference" if it at some point reported good navigation accuracy and then reported low accuracy. Doing this helps filter out aircraft that just have an ongoing issue with their GPS equipment, or don't even have GPS.
When I do that, areas where there is systematic interference—almost always jamming by military systems—become obvious. There are a few conflict zones (Syria, Cyprus, Israel) that have been experiencing jamming for years, and the U.S. often has smaller scale military testing, especially in the West and Southwest. You can also see the jammers that are apparently setup around Moscow to prevent drones from flying near Oligarch dachas[3].
I started making these maps in February before Russia invaded Ukraine because I thought it might provide an early warning of an invasion. I didn't see that, and in fact this technique doesn't do a very good job of mapping GPS jamming around the actual war zones because civil aviation stopped over Ukraine, so there are zero or few aircraft with ADS-B reporting their GPS accuracy[4]. Without that data, I can't make a map.
Sometimes I do see changes, like when Russia suddenly started jamming around Kaliningrad in March 2022, causing interference in many Baltic states and leading to Finland to cancel some flights[5]. Then a few days later, they just stopped.
[Edit:] I don't think too many people have realized yet what an amazing source of GPS interference data is available using ADS-B! It's like having thousands of sensors roaming the planet, broadcasting GPS accuracy data every few seconds. I sometimes wonder if I would disrupt someone's nascent business model if I started publishing my maps regularly.
(I have a Synology setup with 12 TB that I use to store various sensor data—I highly recommend it.)
1. https://www.faasafety.gov/files/notices/2022/Jun/WSMRNM_22-0... 2. https://twitter.com/lemonodor/status/1493789598077440000 3. https://www.gpsworld.com/jammers-at-dachas-add-to-russias-ab... 4. https://twitter.com/lemonodor/status/1497295859196649475 5. https://twitter.com/lemonodor/status/1500719113185816577
Yes, clearly given the detail in your post, you are "not an expert". Thanks for being on HN and making this site great.
Multi-band GNSS is what helps address issues around reception like multipath and interference. Receivers used to be pretty expensive, and the number of L5 satellites wasn't that high until the last few years, but now can be found in even a number of consumer electronic devices, and the number of L5 satellites keeps going up (and as more satellites have L5 signals, things will get better.) Several Garmin sport devices have it now, for example. A quick search shows Maxim sells a multi-band GNSS chipset for $10.
There is really no excuse for any autonomous vehicle company to not be at least evaluating multi-band GPS receivers, if only to give more reliable position data in urban environs.
I'd be surprised if at least some aren't using RTK receivers, but this requires a base station within a certain range of the cars, or commercial service (such as that offered to farmers by John Deere.) RTK just isn't that expensive compared to even a single LIDAR unit.
Edit: they can tolerate at least some degree of GPS degradation and use dead reckoning / lidar data in some cases, according to this person: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31940167
---
That was going to be my hypothesis. GPS resolution can be reduced in a conflict area.
I'll defer to someone with actual knowledge to add more info. :)
>Does this happen when you're not using Glonass? I wonder if Russia has been 'tweeking' it.
>I've switched to Galileo and the problem is FIXED.
[0] https://scitechdaily.com/auroras-incoming-giant-sunspot-has-...
[1] https://interestingengineering.com/a-huge-solar-eruption
I have not seen any mention of GPS service degradation in hobbyist drone enthusiast groups over the last week, some of whom use quite small GPS modules with serial connection to the flight controller for automated signal lost return to home features and such.
EDIT: Appears GPS/IMU/LIDAR is sufficient, my mistake. TIL.
Edit: Looks like someone ex-Cruise confirmed this ITT
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31940167
> Fine localization should be able to resolve without GNSS input (with caveats) and there are specific tested requirements to be able to tolerate a certain number of minutes of outage even in the absence of LIDAR before position accuracy degrades beyond acceptable limits.
https://www.jammer-store.com/gj6-all-civil-gps-signal-jammer...
This happens with a certain frequency in aviation
Relying purely on GPS (for self driving) won't work.
Given that even Russian pilots in Ukraine have been found to be using GPS, it looks like that would not even be necessary.
https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2022/06/21/exposed-capture...
What it's not is, a huge multi-car multi-injury accident. So I don't mind it much more than if all the traffic lights in the area were out.
But decreasing congestion? We already know how to do that, and in many ways it seems like a safer bet than some kind of technogy with large problems and even larger unknowns; public transport.
Cheap, well developed, reliable public transport will beat autonomous cars on throughput and resource use any day.
But this costs more than just money — it costs space. And if you are doing it right it also costs you road space (busses and streetcars only make sense of they have their own uninterrupted lanes for the most part).
We need to learn to appreciate things for what they're really worth to us (including their true costs) not just for what they look like.
_________________
Health problems come because of the polishing. Polishing rice into the sparkling white form that most people prefer has three major negative impacts on health.
The first is, polishing removes most of the vitamins and minerals that are vital to health. (...)
The second relates to diabetes, which is threatening to reach epidemic proportions in the Philippines over the next couple of decades. (...)
Finally, polishing rice also reduces its protein content, which can mean the difference between being well-nourished or malnourished.
(...) And, then, over the decades, the dominant culture defined brown rice as “dirty” and fit only for the poor, while white rice was seen as sophisticated and modern.
[1] https://ips-dc.org/why_billions_eat_unhealthy_riceand_should...
Cheap, reliable, dense public transit with diverse "last mile" options is clearly a much better choice from the congestion, efficiency cost point of views.
> well developed
> reliable
Speaking as a guy in Europe where we generally have "good" public transport, I think you can only ever have ONE of those at the same time, with some exceptions.
Cheap fares? You get decrepit busses from the 80s and the timetable's just a suggestion (what my city used to have)
Well developed? Development isn't cheap so fares get expensive, busses are Mercs that run on CNG and the timetable's still just a suggestion - but you get live boards showing arrival times at least (what my city has today)
Reliable? You'll have to go to Switzerland or Japan to experience that, no other place truly has it. And those places aren't cheap... but they would count as having well developed route networks, so 2/3 for them I suppose.
I don’t think this is generally true... If it is true, then the I suspect government subsidize are a bigger factor in explaining the variance of public transit quality then fare price.
Take Reykjavík as an example. It has the most expensive public transit fare price in Europe (86% above the European average) and all you get are some buses every 30-60 min (with only a handful of lines running more frequently during rush hour), timetables from the 80s and a ticketing system that never actually works. It is safe to say that Reykjavík has an expensive, poorly developed and unreliable transit system.
I think a well funded transit system can actually accomplish all three pretty easily, as long as they are willing to sacrifice some convenience for private vehicles.
In Zürich, a monthly city ticket is around $50, and a monthly country wide public transport ticket is $340 (and really gets you almost everywhere). Annual tickets are slightly cheaper.
I would argue while not "very cheap", the prices are still reasonably cheap, especially when compared to reoccurring car costs.
Of course driverless taxis will not help much with congestion. That will require different solutions.
Anything, automation included, that allows things to flow more smoothly will decrease congestion for a specific number of vehicles on the road allowing roads/intersections/etc to flow closer to their ideal capacity. (This principal holds whether you're talking about cars or buses, train networks, industrial facilities, etc.)
For example, if self driving solves some decent fraction of the morons who can't seem to merge in the size space that the engineers specifically allocated because it was sufficient for that purpose or can't turn left even through sufficiently sparse cross traffic you've just alleviated a lot of congestion.
In practice transit networks are bounded by the daily peaks so you'll never not have traffic jams and packed subway cars at rush hour but efficiency improvements mean these conditions will exist for a smaller slice of the day.
In almost all the above places, there have been frequent instances where I’ve had to use taxis and/or rent a car. And that was while living/staying in the core of these cities.
99.99% of places on earth aren’t nearly as densely populated as the ones above, so increase the need for cars proportionally if you ever want to go elsewhere.
We need both good public transport and autonomous vehicles. It’s not one or the other.
Whenever I see people citing public transport as a panacea for all problems, it’s typically a wealthy, single, childless, digital minimalist 20-something who lives in the core of the aforementioned cities, and never does much outside of it.
You ever wonder where the food you eat gets grown and how it gets delivered to that fast casual restaurant you love down the street? It’s not public transport.
the argument is strange, they don't exactly deliver 40 tons of wheat to the bakery with a taxi. Noone is arguing against cargo and utility vehicles unless they can be substituted by railway (which could be better designed, etc)
https://www.tescoplc.com/updates/2021/how-tesco-is-turning-t...
Remember, this is happening in a state with massive multiple public health crisis that go un-reported and has maps of human excrement in their inner-cities. The priorities here are completely in the wrong direction I agree.
For the municipiality a 6 lane street vs a two lane street with public transport and bicycle lanes can make the difference between neverending debt and prosperity. Places with good public transport and bicycle infrastructure and denser mixed use pay more tax revenue. Spread out urban sprawls and suburbs give the municipiality a lot of street surface to maintain, for very little tax revenue in return.
A good introduction on that part is the strong towns playlist by the youtube channel Not Just Bikes: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y_SXXTBypIg
I mean yeah, there will be different manufacturers so it's not like every car in a city could come to a standstill. And I'm also speaking from a place of ignorance, so please correct me if I'm off-base. But isn't this kind of a thing (mass stoppages of entire fleets) a cause for concern as we see increased FSD adoption?
As with many of things related to self-driving cars, the target doesn't have to be "perfection" so much as "better than people on average". Human drivers do dumb things in large groups all the time, like highway pileups in bad weather, or rubbernecking traffic jams. I don't think all the humans on earth ever stopped driving at the same time, though, so...that'll be a first :p
I have an issue with that argument, because it's typically being used together with highly disingenuous statistics (like Teslas our FSD has less accidents per mile than normal drivers) to give the impression that autonomous driving is anywhere close to being "better than people on average". This is just not the case at least not in any region with a broad variety of weather conditions.
> Human drivers do dumb things in large groups all the time, like highway pileups in bad weather, or rubbernecking traffic jams.
Considering that most autonomous driving doesn't even work in really bad weather, I'd argue that humans are still much better despite the pileups.
Agreed. I think the argument is ultimately true, but it's also easy to abuse with bad stats, and being skeptical of each new claim that we've "crossed the line" is a good idea.
Got any facts behind that assertion?
You see, I completely disagree with this assumption. They should be perfect or they shouldn't be allowed on the road at all.
You wouldn't accept a bread slicer that sometimes erroneously slices off your fingers, as long as it does so less frequently than people slice their own fingers on average, would you?
If I posed the question as: Would you prefer to place your hand next to a machine which will accidentally cut your finger off once every 100,000 cuts, or a human chef that will accidentally cut your finger off every once every 50,000 cuts, which would you prefer?
I don't know about you, but I'd give the machine a crack.
"sometimes erroneously slices off your fingers" sounds scary, but if it happens less often than people in the wild, this is absolutely a net gain.
I'm not sure I understand where you're coming from here. Are old fashioned injuries with old fashioned knives preferable to newfangled injuries with newfangled equipment? It seems pretty straightforward to me that fewer injuries would be better, all else equal.
Maybe you're imagining all else will not be equal? Maybe the new injuries are more severe, or more likely to happen to innocent bystanders, or something like that. It could be. But I think it's important to be specific about what we're worried about here. Otherwise "fewer is fewer" is all we have to go on.
And yet I have certainly seen bread slicers that are exactly like that. Possibly even worse than "other hand with knife". Maybe the analogy is also not very helpful though, because (at least for those bread slicers I'm thinking of) the user is still majorly in charge of his own safety, unlike FSD.
I would definitely use a robotaxi system that drives better than an average person. I already take taxis driven by someone else, which means that I take some risks anyway.
If a core goal is really to make thoroughfares safer and reduce traveler injuries/fatalities, we seem to be ignoring or discounting some pretty obvious options, like minimizing car traffic
This vision where we all get around in low-passenger-count autonomous robot cages on existing roadways is just one possible future but we seem to fixate on it. At the end of the day the car is a tool but we've allowed it to burrow into the collective psyche
What about making cities walkable, bikeable, segway-able, wheelchair-able, scooter-able, whatever, with proven public transportation options like trains or buses running fixed routes for longer commutes? Much more energy efficient, way easier than autonomous cars, and conducive to much more livable urban areas imo
It will take some effort to change habits and expectations and revamp infrastructure but surely that's as worthwhile as all the time and money going into FSD?
In parts of the city I live in it has become very uncomfortable to drive a car, there are just too many pedestrians and bikers, and this has encouraged be to bike even more. For distances of less than 6km there is no time advantage when using a car. And in the highway I just use normal driver assist functions like lane keeping and adaptive cruise control, and it's enough.
I will go even further and say that reducing injuries and fatalities is just an excuse for FSD development, so the public thinks it's a good idea to go with it. The real reason is that a fleet of autonomous taxis can be very profitable.
There is really no evidence that FSD fleets will reduce car usage or fatalities, so really it could be the wrong solution for the wrong problem.
Electric rideables are the future, and if we could give them storage on public transport and a lane of road, they would go a long way.
This is part of the problem imo
Remote employee "drivers" take over when a car signals that it doesn't know what to do
The more immediate concern is self driving vehicles that are clearly not ready to be on public roads being allowed to test (or not being pulled off the roads).
The only way for either of these things to get better is through real-world experience.
And I work in robotics.
if you are going to make that argument, you have to explain why we are socialising losses and privatising profits (again)
so some number of people will be injured of killed while self driving cars gain experience, and then private corporations will extract profit from it?
Until there is a emergency vehicle thats unable to get through.
Some genius 10x'er forgets to carry the 1 or something, and all of a sudden an entire city full of cars all collide with pedestrians all at once.
I don't know enough about this stuff to know if this is a realistic thing or just the premise of a bad sci-fi movie.
2 - each satellite is under observation by a team
3 - how many satellites do you think are there actually? Not that many, unlike the driverless cars we are setting up nowadays
4 - Earth is actually big. Satellite pouring down all at once and you'll have maximum like 100 casualties - worse case scenario if 1). doesn't happen. Cars OTOH are in busy cities. One battery to explode and can easily do 100 casualties
And new ways for us to better destroy ourselves and each other.
Imagine, say, a pandemic like lockdown, but now only authorised vehicles may travel at certain times, or at all, and that software is buggy, or gets hacked, or used malevolently by one or another political faction.
No need to imagine. This was de facto policy for quarantine in most south american countries.
You couldnt drive unless: - you were a doctor or politician, then only if - the weekday corresponded to the last digit of your plate, then if, - only before x time, like 10pm, - etc.
The better approach is decentralized, with each car built to always fend for itself without a server, imho.
Right now it's just a small fleet of driverless taxis. Doesn't this demonstrate the potential for it to be, say, every single Honda in the city? Why even limit it to a city? A single manufacturer's critical infrastructure has some kind of fault (malice, shit code, hardware failure - dealer's choice!) and suddenly Fords stop running nationwide, or internationally.
Then I start thinking of the impact to emergency vehicles caused by a cavalcade of stopped cars, and other similar issues.
Again, I need to point out that I'm not trying to be sensationalist or hyperbolic. I'm ignorant here and am genuinely curious how viable these types of scenarios could be. It's clear that it can happen, I'm just curious to what extent.
If there's something weird about the location where they are stuck -- maybe somebody is jamming GPS or whatever -- then they should at least be able to pull over using local sensors, right?
On the other hand, if there's some effect that is tripping up their sensors -- maybe some odd geometry that, for whatever bizarre reason, looks like a wall to them -- this pretty embarassing, but probably an inevitable growing pain for this technology.
Given I had no clue what state the vehicles were in, and that they'd start moving without indication, it felt pretty damn worrying.
"Murderbot mode". Or rather, transitioning into it. But they got stuck, which is why you're still alive.
"Coming Halloween, 2024! Killer Kaarr!.
Aiden, malicious disgraced hacker gets into the networks of, Joel, his successful rival's self-driving taxi company, Kaarr. Joel and Aiden were CIA hackers, but fell out over their mutual love of Klara. Joel takes Klara to the heights of the elite, but she still pines for Aiden. In revenge, Aiden hacks into Kaarr's networks and makes all the cars into murderbots, locking his rival Joel inside as the killing commences. At the end of the night, all the Killer Kaarrs are set to drive into the ocean, killing a traumatized Joel. But there's only one problem, Klara is locked inside a Killer Kaarr too. Can Aiden reverse his sadistic code in time to save Klara? Can Joel escape to stop the killing? Find Out, Halloween 2024!
A horror/gore/race film with lots of body horror as people are alternatively hit, crushed, bonked, exploded, and otherwise tortured by cute little electric cars with really tinted windshields and choice camera angles. Think the hokey rubbery special effects of The Thing with a lot of cell phones and car-centric jump scares.
In both cases someone else is driving for the customer. With a human driver (plus driver assist braking and collision warnings) you have the most flexible, sophisticated intelligence on Earth driving. With a robotaxi you have something inferior. But maybe it's a lot cheaper, right?
The robotaxi can only compete on price because that's its only advantage.
If you own a car that drives itself, that's a different story. Everybody can see the value proposition.
We would have to look at the cost of the hardware and maintenance and fallback remote operators and the R&D investment to evaluate whether a robotaxi fleet is indeed cheaper. How much cheaper is it, exactly? 5%? 10%? 15%?
Would you pay a little more to have the most flexible, sophisticated intelligence on Earth (human brain + driver assist) or would you want to save a few dollars and risk having some dumb piece of software strand you in the middle of the road somewhere?
We all use Google Maps or Apple Maps when driving and most of us have seen these systems do boneheaded things. Just imagine the dumb things a robotaxi could do.
It's hard for a normal person to be excited about this. I don't know a single person who is excited by robotaxis.
The taxi driver having 0% chance of raping or stealing you would be prominent a clear win.
Or really any of many many other issues you could have with an actual human person with a specific world view and social position interacting with you. Not even considering if you yourself have specific shortcommings (fear of social interactions etc.)
It wouldn't be fair to pit a perfect human against the self driving car, there are many other stuff to be consided outside of the sheer driving competence.
I find it interesting that this gets mentioned so much - I’ve done some moderate googling for cases of rape by a cab driver in Berlin and the last case that went to court was in 2013 - and even that is not a classic case of premeditated rape (+) There is one case later where a passenger raped a taxi driver and one where two rapists pretended to be Uber drivers - they could not have easily pretended to be taxi drivers in Germany since the cars need to have very specific signage and equipment.
Now, this doesn’t mean that no rape occurred - after all not every rape case gets reported - but it certainly indicates that the risk of being raped in a taxi in Berlin is low.
Things may be different in the US, but even there my initial assumption is that the risk gets overestimated since this is the kind of crime that gets overrepresented in the news.
(+) the passengers didn’t want to pay the fare and threatened the driver who then pulled out a gun and forced them to have sex as payment. Still rape, no question, but not a premeditated rape case.
Then, the robot taxi is probably not stealing you on its own, there would need to be other humans involved...
With robotaxi you get a driver that:
- never gets tired
- never gets distracted
- never gets drunk
- never gets upset
- never falls asleep
- has reaction time in milliseconds
- ...
Of course it has tons of problems of its own, but it's not like price is the only advantage over human driver.I am hopeful we will see improved safety but rather skeptical that will come in urban robo fleets ahead of highway longhaul cargo.
Today's auto fleets are idle 95% of the time, because everyone overspecs capacity for the worst case. Marginal level 4 self-driving is sufficient to disrupt this. The savings in being able to downsize personal vehicles and hand off logistics to a third party are huge for individuals and also improve land use - hunting for parking space disappears, and every parking lot can subsequently downsize too.
https://www.wired.com/story/cruise-fire-truck-block-san-fran...
Until we do a better job of solving these issues, we need to have backup drivers available in these vehicles, or, the vehicles should be operating in places where dumb breakdowns don’t block ambulances and fire trucks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_automated_train_system...
Regular people drive cars out of necessity to commute. Cars are ubiquitous.
Which market was easier to sell to investors?
People should get paid to drive their car to work. It's dangerous, has high liability for them in case of injury or litigation, and in any case they should be compensated for even driving at all.
That's because people like me can only ride bicycles because being such terrible drivers. Unless taking an amount of stimulants niggardly shrinks will never prescribe for the specific task of driving, driving would put many other people at risk and lead to an accident a day, whereas on a bike the maximum death toll is myself. And I suck up the accident with my adrenaline, my body, and the bike frame. Injury without guilt.
We already have automated (no staff in train) metros (Paris' 14, Paris' 1, soon Paris' 4, Paris' Orlyval, Rennes' a/b just for the ones I've used)
I remember there was a prototype bus (12 person size ~) at La Défense - with a staff always on board, and I see that now there is "EZ10" in Toulouse, but I remember seeing also other lines as well. I'm pretty confident there are many all across the world.
There was a row of parked cars on the roadside, and a person was walking around one of them to open her trunk. I guess the car was able to spot her in the dark and opted to pause. So we were stopped there. The woman threw her hands up as if to say, "whatcha lookin' at?" I had the window down, and I offered the explanation "self-driving car." She said "Ugh, I hate those things." Then the car continued on.
Seriously, it removes a form of social interaction, a type of job and increases the number of vehicles on the road in certain areas again. I fail to see an improvement here. All the money pouring from this is into giant mega-corps as opposed to someone working a 9-5 and driving safely because of the perceived bad behaviour of a few. Defending this AI nonsense as "just a minor problem" is the same as condemming all taxis for "bad drivers" it's just bad logic.
Tesla is the only one working on real world FSD that doesn’t rely on all that stuff
My kid brain thought “wouldn’t it be cool if when the light turned green some of that ink bubbled up and all the cars started going at once instead of one after another”
Anyway - as self driving cars have gotten closer and closer to real, I always assumed eventually when most all cars were self driving, there’d be some standardized protocol for cars to coordinate with one another.
It’s hilariously depressing that cars in the same fleet have no interexchange.
A robot may not join or form a union, or participate in work stoppages, strikes, or picketing.
I would be surprised if that were the cause. Fine localization should be able to resolve without GNSS input (with caveats) and there are specific tested requirements to be able to tolerate a certain number of minutes of outage even in the absence of LIDAR before position accuracy degrades beyond acceptable limits. It may be an edge case in the GNSS pipeline, but I don't think it's that edge case.
I've yet to hear this expression. Love it! I will be using this!
It seems like a bad idea to deploy an update to a vehicle in traffic.
Oh and by the way there's real time traffic on Google maps. So most people usually drive with it either on their smartphones or their main – GPS navigation. So you could probably know that there's a slowdown ahead before you take your route.
Sure. It may suck that you have to use real time navigation to go anywhere, but that's the reality when driving in a congested city or route.
There are even two side by side and the one is almost 1/3 of the way in the other’s lane??
Just teach people to drive better, pay them a living wage and start paying your taxes. After all of that I doubt there would be an industry here for automation because some people enjoy driving.
A bit overdramatic IMO. Personally I can't wait until I never have to drive a car again.
I would imagine it stays the same in high density cities where it's viable to have metro systems and there isn't enough road space for everyone.
Instead of Cloudflare is down, AWS is down, we can start having Uber is down this morning or "Taxi fleet suddenly switched into left-hand traffic mode for five minutes".
companies and cities should be investing their time into improving public transportation and designing our cities to be more walkable and make alternate modes of transportation more feasible. the US culture of using a car for everyday transportation is fucking insane, wasteful, and contributes to the rising cost of living across the US (not just SF).
I totally agree that better designed cities would be superior. When I took the initiative to participate in my local government, I was screamed and cursed at for the most trivial improvements imaginable, like a shared bike lane on a few miles of a particularly dangerous street.
Multiply that by the opposition to actual improvements and advocacy in every single town, city, and state in America.
Fuck that. Self driving cars are way easier.
That's quite a stretch. If you think the money would be better spent elsewhere, ok. But to call it a failure is silly. Personally, I think driverless taxis making car ownership less necessary will be a huge plus. It will also make life a lot better for those due to age (too young or too old) or other issues not being able to drive.
I remember the space program being credited as contributing so much to the economy via by-product technology. Certainly self-driving cars contributes to automating tons of things beyond driving people around on public streets. After all, self-driving car tech is really just a subset of robotics.
Of course if you are against automation in all senses (e.g. they're putting people out of work!") that's a different discussion.
"the US culture of using a car for everyday transportation is fucking insane, wasteful, and contributes to the rising cost of living across the US (not just SF)."
Ok, but to get away from that you need gradual steps. I'd say it is far less insane to call a robo-taxi when needed (possibly a van-sized one that carries many people at once, which become practical once more people are willing to give up owning cars), than it is to actually own a car that sits idle, possibly on city streets, 95% of the time. Also there will be robo-deliveries, so you don't need to use a car for such basic things as going to the grocery store. This can actually be far cheaper for the stores, since there is no need for large spaces consumers can walk around in. The whole process can be automated, including filling your order, putting it on a truck, and putting it on your front porch (or in some kind of box accessible to the bot). Stuff like this is all part of the same technological effort.
Given that you bring up the space program in the same post I'll stick with the metaphor and point out that you can't go to the moon by climbing up trees, or as Russ Ackoff said, doing the wrong thing right is worse than doing the right thing wrong, because making the wrong thing more efficient just makes things worse.
If you want fully automated, efficient transport this technology already exists, it's train and subway systems. We even know how to virtually automate them 100% already, 24/7. With the tens of bilions if not more spent on driverless cars you could have actually rebuilt a decent chunk of infrastructure.
Having individual people drive around in two tons of steel to buy a bag of groceries is fundamentally stupid and its destroying cities, whether the car is electric or automated doesn't matter that much and there's no gradual change away from it, only a disruptive one.
I usually just tell them to go churn butter and stop driving their own car if that's a real position they have. I don't think I've ever heard a sillier position, ever.
I love going directly from point A to B in a private space and I'm not ashamed to admit it. This provides value to my life in the form of comfort and convenience, factors that are so frequently waved away as irrelevant by anyone screaming "car culture".
However, it's admittedly obscene that for this privledge, my vehicle sits unused most of the time. I'd be more than happy to have a non-owned electric vehicle show up when I need it, take me to my destination, and then proceed to help someone else with their journey.
Its not irrelevant. But driving becomes better the less people are taking cars. So, even for people who would never take public transport or something like that, its beneficial to invest in it.
Being able to take a car is a freedom, HAVING to take one isn't.
It absolutely could not, here simply is not enough space for all those cars. A heavy rail metro line can carry up to 60 thousand passengers per hour per direction, which is the equivalent of a 30 lane highway.
That said, I paid a lot to live right by a good stop on a good line b/c I too like directness.
It seems so inefficient to me to be putting resources into self-driving cars.
From the point of view of the commuter, a bus or train is "self driving" since the commuter is free to read, work on their laptop, etc. while on a bus/train. We've had that tech for a few hundred years, it is vastly more efficient not only in fuel consumption but cost as well. We should use it more.
I understand why people in most of the U.S. are reticent to use public transportation though, without descending into listing off the litany of reasons, I will say though that I believe those issues are all fairly easy to solve (to be sure, some issues require a hefty expenditure of capital). And I am a hypocrite — I too have a list of reasons that I dislike the public transportation (such as it is) that is available to me in a mid-size U.S. city and do not use it. (Christ, I miss Tokyo though.)
I am hesitant to judge, but to me the idea of a "personal chauffeur" (self-driving car) in lieu of pushing for more public transportation is somewhat gross.
Autonomous vehicles are an enormous market and well worth the investment.
But it has been done. It’s a matter of will. Not saying it’s de facto a good idea. But cities can be refactored. See : Haussmann.
Are you from the US? I find the kind of passive statement about the state of systems prevalent here. ( be it public transportation, internet infrastructure, political framework )
I start to doubt the capacity of this country to adapt.
Tell that to Jersey City:
Transport infrastructure in cities absolutely can be redesigned quickly, if you’re willing to take a quick and dirty approach in the short term. Which is usually enough when it comes to influencing people’s behavior; it doesn’t have to be perfect, it just has to be functional and feel safe.
https://www.6sqft.com/before-after-10-nyc-blocks-and-enclave...
and a few more examples here, with the designer talking about the process:
https://www.wired.com/video/watch/wired-news-and-science-str...
That's a lot of money sure, but what could that get you if it was spent on infrastructure? That couldn't even pay for a 500 mile high speed rail from LA to San Fransisco which is now going to cost at least $110 billion [1].
[0] https://www.treehugger.com/praise-dumb-transportation-self-d...
[1] https://www.constructiondive.com/news/california-high-speed-...
You can’t board a train while soaked in mud, or pushing a Subaru seat, or carrying bag full of groceries. Actually I’ve done the latter two, but I haven’t seen anyone else doing it, and it had been extremely awkward.
Everyone feels driving cars are wrong, perhaps because of emissions, but trains and buses just don’t cut it. I even doubt a public driverless taxis fills the gap, as moving large objects on human driven taxis can be awkward enough.
If it were, you'd probably just go on a 10 minute walk and pickup enough for two days of food.
(When they do try to change it people complain about it and say "those morons just invented the bus again".)
We are all modernists now. Essentially, this means that we perceive technology in itself as a value. The primary value is not the end goal, say, for example, a healthy urban environment. No, instead, living in a sci-fi future with robotic vehicles is a value, because it is technologically more advanced than a future without that. In modernism, it's a sickness of the mind really, a solution cannot be imagined, unless it involves technological mediation. This has been the curse of human civilization for a good 100 years now.
Anyways, I don't think research in driverless cars is wasted. They are better than the current state of affairs. They can only be a marginal improvement though, they are not a paradigm shift.
There are three Phoenix-area Wal-Marts from which one can order delivery from a Cruise vehicle: https://www.getcruise.com/walmartdelivery. I also see what I assume are Cruise test vehicles out and about.
X Doubt
The quaint subculture of people who drive their cars.
[1] https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/is-lamda-sentient-an-inte...
taxis do this all the time before "ride sharing" was a thing.
In some sense it’s not the taxi driver or ride share drivers fault they block the road or bike lanes it’s really just the system they are thrown into.
The number of taxis is also capped (medallions), so the number of taxis in bike lanes was limited.
Then TNCs came along, and the number of taxi-like trips exploded, and suddenly there are far, far more drivers blocking bike lanes.
Furhermore, taxis were far better to deal with if you're a cyclist. There is a dedicated police unit for dealing with reports of problems with vehicle condition/cleanliness, operation, billing, etc. If you call in with a problem, a record is kept of such complaints, and a sworn officer investigates. Taxis have to carry a fairly high level of insurance.
And generally speaking, taxis were better for everyone, because: They are subject to random police inspection for condition, cleanliness, and adherence to regulations. They are required to pick up or drop off anywhere in the city, and can be fined if they refuse service from or to a particular area. They are required to have a certain number of handicapped-accessible vehicles and accommodate handicapped service requests.
TNCs, as they are called, have skirted all of this. In my city they turned out to generate a massive number of excess car trips - causing a huge increase in pollution and congestion.
See the autonomous vehicle guidelines used by the SFPD: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/21970950/av-interacti...
Surprisingly I always see them testing in Los Altos. Surely that place has the most rich busybodys of all, and yet they haven't been sued for causing traffic or something.