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Germany is set to run out of gas during winter under optimistic scenarios. This is looking less like a bit of unpleasantness and more like economic suicide by the day.

LNG is not going to suffice. There isnt even the port capacity to bring it in. Rationing would have to be extreme just to ride out the winter. And then what?

Hitting the economic self destruct button so that Ukraine reserves the right to join NATO doesnt look so appealing any more.

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Running out in this case just means a spike in prices or the dreaded rationing. Lowering thermostats can dramatically reduce fuel consumption, how to achieve that nationwide is an open question.

And if it's a cold winter? And if buildings can't be heated and pipes burst? If businesses shutdown because of freezes?

It takes vastly less energy to keep pipes from freezing than it does to keep indoor temperatures at ~70f.

If supplies where dropping 80% Germany would be facing real issues, but that's not the scale we are talking about.

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