Every single large company is expecting a long economic winter.
I'm just stating this in case people fool themselves in any way at the moment. Things are bleak and those who aren't lay people have pessimistic outlooks.
I'm just stating this in case people fool themselves in any way at the moment. Things are bleak and those who aren't lay people have pessimistic outlooks.
If you think companies are some kind of accurate leading indicator here, you’re being highly selective in the data you’re evaluating.
The economy is complex, it’s safe to slow down hiring, no one will remember a company that left money on the table when the storm clouds started forming, but they will remember a company that ignored “obvious” signs of a problem.
(I know people don’t like Krugman, but this piece is nuanced and apolitical)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
Real wages are declining not growing. $393/week median in Q2 2020, $362/week in Q4 2021.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Number of job openings are declining after peaking in March. 11,855,000 in March, 11,254,000 in May.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL
Gas prices went from $1.94 a gallon in May of 2020 to $5.03 in June of last month.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=e...
Yes, prices might have come down slightly since June. But overall, the statistics you cite are all trending negative.
For companies connected to these trends or the capital cycle, yes...it is going to be bad, most companies that failed to IPO won't survive, a lot of the late stage flippers have already lost everything (they just aren't marking down yet).
But this is a small part of tech, and a small part of the world. US tech had the fun on the way up...well, this is the next part. But the general economics of demand for tech are still good. The problem with large tech companies is that they took profitable businesses and then started hiring like mad and setting fire to cash (this isn't only unprofitable companies, Google is a tech company with a bureaucracy attached, the way that company is run is just comical). Tomorrow has come.
So… deciding to move to channels where ROI is unknowable?
It can also be much better. Everything depends.
In the case of things like trade shows, mailing physical brochures/flyers/offers to address lists, and so on, the knowability is higher than many online alternatives.
And not much consequence for that, and that too in a slowing economy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/morgan-st...
If people are worried about their jobs (or being laid off/unable to find new jobs), they'll spend less...