For better or for worse, human labor and fossil fuels are the two most indefensible ingredients of our current global economic system, and the supply of both has been badly disrupted.
Obviously a lot has changed since the 70s, but why exactly aren't we having 70s stagflation or worse in the US? Do domestic oil and gas play a role?
we had strong unions back then which would demand double-digit COLA raises in salary producing a wage-price spiral.
given how people could actually afford homes back then, though, i don't think this was a particularly bad thing.
what we have now contains all the inflation in the system to the upper class and asset bubbles.
we need either to have the cost of housing deflate or the wages paid to inflate. it will be less painful to inflate wages. this isn't what we're going to do though.
Optimistically I’d guess we’re looking at 3-5 years to get inflation under control and that might include a recession (thats already started).
But the easiest way to guess at the future is to look at similar problems of the past.
Bank of Canada already said inflation won’t be under control for 2 more years.
What it does sound like is younger people hoping for a recession because they think it will collapse housing prices. They’re wrong, but what’s new.
2 quarters of negative GDP growth is a recession. We’ve had 1 quarter so far and lay offs are increasing.
I hope not, but with increasing rates we stand a good chance.
The highest authority on this matter is the NBER. Their definition is pasted, below. I don’t see a significant decline and so far it has not impacted employment. We’re still adding a quarter million net jobs each month.
“A significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”
> What it does sound like is younger people hoping for a recession because they think it will collapse housing prices. They’re wrong, but what’s new.
I wish I had your crystal ball.
If America were producing its own things alone, the supply shock would have pushed inflation much much higher.
9.1% isn't massive?
We are extremely privileged to be able to acquire resources even if one producer goes down.