The Road to Stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine War

graphics.reuters.com

2 points·gmays··3 comments

Last I checked Russia was still making progress. Unlike the first days, they are not rushing, but taking their time to eliminate defenders with artillery strikes.

How deep are you diving on the situation? Almost every analyst agrees that Russia does not have the manpower to sustain their efforts to date, certainly not to hold the territory they desire. Their progress has been slow and extremely costly.

It's really more of a race to see whose economy collapses first to the point they are willing to negotiate. A stalemate will more likely depend on how much equipment the west can / will give to Ukraine, they have ample manpower (600k aiming for 1M warfighters, most need training and equipping)

> Almost every analyst agrees that

First rule of international conflicts: analysts in the press are almost always off by several orders of magnitude.

Specifically, these analysts told us: (1) Russia would take Ukraine in days (didn't happen) (2) Russia would collapse under sanctions (didn't happen) (3) A breakthrough in Mariupol was imminent (didn't happen) (4) Russian advance would grind to a halt (didn't happen)

I'm probably missing a few.

Also I'm old enough to remember that analysts were telling us that Saddam had WMDs :)

Edit: also in 2020 as Azerbaijan was crushing Armenia in the Karabakh War, analysts in the press were still echoing Armenian state propaganda.

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