Okay...now assume that I took Probability 101 as an undergrad, got an B+, and kept the textbook.
If we knew how many companies Elan has lead, and the percentage of barely-founded little companies from ~2003 which have been as successful as SpaceX and Tesla over the past 2 decades, then we could perform the calculations, and see what the odds actually are on Elan hitting two such jackpots by random chance & survivorship.
Elan's Wikipedia entry only has him leading ~10 companies. If you could name a few hundred more, that would help your case...