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I can't see IRC coming back as there's just slightly too much friction for the common person to get up and running.

I could see websites coming back (I mean like the way people used to actually browse websites instead of social media). The problem with websites at the moment is discoverability. Google's SEO is a major roadblock to this at the moment. A way around it might be a "web of discoverability", with meaningful, relevant links on each website curated by the site owners themselves. At the moment, this seems to be a void filled by ads, which is a sort of tragedy of the commons.

Yeah, chat and email basically prove that the vast majority of the public don’t actually want to run and maintain a server themselves, which basically leaves

* carriers (universally disliked by the population, tolerated at best, and pretty scummy trying to trap you into their own networks or bloatware if they can get away with it)

* apps that monetize using ads

* apps that monetize with payment

* an OS-level standard (iMessage is very successful, the Android chatting less so, and nonexistent on desktop OSes)

> and nonexistent on desktop OSes

At some point, MSN Messenger was the most used chat app, and then it simply... was left to die.

This was the single most anti-monopoly action of MS in all its history.

> a "web of discoverability", with meaningful, relevant links on each website curated by the site owners themselves.

Are you old enough to remember "web rings?"

Not quite it seems. I was a kid when Facebook came out. I remember what it was like to find websites that had real, bizarre, and innovative content, but I was too young to pick up on the terminology or appreciate how any of it worked.

I kind of do that on an individual level myself - http://www.ruffandtuffrecordings.com/SELECTIONS

Those are music picks I regularly update... It would be really cool if there was the ability to standardize the format for small web sites like this and then be able to follow others with similar interests... Pretty much reviving the old Myspace in essence, but with independent micro-sites for hosting curated links and other content from each user.

I like that, Bandcamp lets artists do something similar in that they can suggested albums/tracks ahead of the payment algorithmically selected suggestions.

In the early 2000s I remember lots of blogs about music where they just posted links to mp3s because there didn't seem to be a better way to embed tracks. I appreciate people based suggestions.

Wouldn't a search service that blacklists the giant players -- Amazon, Google, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, etc. -- also serve as the same kind of "web of discoverability"? I imagine a search engine where the stewards manually whitelist websites that aren't full of SEO-speak, spam, and ads. Hell, I'm sure my own blog would rank pretty well!

IRC, not in the classic essence of connecting to chat servers, but browser-based options exist. It would be really cool if someone made a tool like Twitter spaces, but for one-on one conversations with random people... e.g. A voice-only chat tool that paired you with random people within different fields for conversations.

> I really don't think TikTok is much better now either, these apps all use the technique of phasing adds and slowly reducing (external) visibility for creators, and just judging from comments I see on Twitter, the economy is imploding as a result.

Exactly. Every single social media company with VC capital has thrown their small users and creators under the bus in favour of the ad driven corporations, mainstream media and boosters coming in and ruining the platform for everyone, hence why the small creators complain about the changes made to the platform, especially the very early adopters and the hyper-active users.

I expect this to never change.

> With the economy as bad as it is, this current creator economy is not sustainable, and not fruitful. We'll all see the quality on these platforms decline as creators quit and protest, while platforms will burn up cash reserves and disappoint investors as their overhead for hosting and operations increase.

That is the basic power law that is being applied here. The early and successful creators on their have already reaped most of the rewards and the attention on there and will need to escape to other platforms in the long term, or find other ways of getting income (partnerships, deals, guest appearances, etc) to continue to be relevant. TikTok is no different to this and it doesn't matter how many users it has.

The outcome is going to be exactly the same as it was for Facebook today and the company (TikTok) is driven in the interest of its shareholders and to make money. Not its users as they are not the priority, so no-one should be surprised to see how the company will screw over its users and throw them under the bus if they ever did a redesign.

Rinse and repeat for current hyped social network of the decade.

99+% of ads are unethical thought manipulation. Until citizens recognize this and take a stand with their wallets against the businesses who profit from unethical ad tactics, we're going to keep slipping deeper into the abyss.

I've noticed (on multiple accounts) that TikTok stops view counts on videos after a point... Even though they can still be viewed directly, TikTok does not update view counts. Many creators stay in agonizing limbo even though they are getting views. It's pretty crazy how much TikTok gaslights everyone, there no better than anyone else.

> it's a rigged carnival game

A major "Aha!" moment for me was when I had it pointed out to me that the social media companies' algorithms that get and keep users attention by showing them what they want can easily be exapted to manipulate the metrics and ad buying behavior.

Yep, the algorithms are all geared towards serving company revenue, not towards finding the best content contributors... What you see on most platforms is now override by who pays the most to boost their posts. There's a whole bunch of smoke and mirrors goin on.

If wonder if TikToks success is just not doing this. Like "viral" articles and videos used to work on Facebook in like 2014, when "likes" actually mattered and could make something a chainmail-ish between friends.

"Baudrillard was right"

- me, often.

Wow haven’t seen that name mentioned often, got any good recommendations if their writing for someone wanting to get into it?

I’m a little late to seeing your reply (my apologies) but the easiest point of reference (and where I’m drawing my prognostications from) is of course “Simulacra and Simulation”

Thank you, will check it out!

That's a great theory. But judging by the number of people I see mindlessly scrolling instagram and TikTok I think they are going to be just fine.

I think YouTube might be the one with the problems in the future. The younger generation seems to prefer the 30 second video clips, rather than the longer form YouTube videos. I think at some point Youtube is going to have to start deleting content, or restricting uploads. Their unlimited uploads for everyone strategy doesn't seem sustainable to me.

Facebook is absolutely dead. Nobody under 25 cares about it.

Anecdotal, but I've seen a few people say "I don't really use Instagram anymore" since these changes. For me it's pretty bad, and I'll probably only look at people's reels from now on. They really did just completely butcher the app, and I would bet money on their usership among young people going down over the next year or 2. Of course, older people are still signing up for instagram, so it's possible it just sort of replaces Facebook.

For most creators, the though of moving a volume of videos to a new location is terrifying. Also, a lot of the content on Youtube is formatted and made only based on YouTube (logos, watermarks, screen format, etc..).

Right now YouTube uses downgraded storage for less-viewed content, that's why a lot of older low-view content takes time to buffer when it's played... If they delete stuff, creator hell might break loose.

Instagram also has a strange infinite scroll that greatly impairs and discourages users from looking into older content... Facebook does it too. I wouldn't be surprised if they are planning on switching to these new formats as a springboard/catalyst for eliminating tons of older content posts, and that will also be a big problem, it's not just pictures of grandma that will be lost.