All of this has already happened. Just look at the stocks of all the pandemic companies. Peleton, Teledoc, Zoom, Docusign and on and on. Pretty much all down 80%+ from their highs.
It's what happens when a bunch of dumb money comes into the market
Nikola, a vaporware company with absolutely 0 revenues burning $600m / year, is still "worth" $3b.
HKD, a vaporware company, is being pump and dumped and is now "worth" $150b+, the size of Bank of America, despite being 50 employees with nothing of value.
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/wegalp/hkd_...
I’m trying to think of a good analogy to CS.. maybe “Good engineers don’t put much stock in artificial intelligence”
It gives a good summation / spells out some critiques / offers his reasons for disagreeing:
Dying to hear where else you suggest putting investments...?
Big question to ask if you are betting the market is bogus is whether the market will stay bogus while your “safe” asset stays flat.
It seems not-crazy to me that someone would have thought that WFH was going to stick around post-COVID and thus also make people want to keep being able to work out from home.
first and foremost, working out at home has always been available. If you prefer working out at home you were probably already doing it.
Second, a lot of people enjoy a social aspect of gyms, or even just find it motivating to be around other people working out even if you don’t talk to them.
You only have to spend a little time around fitness oriented folks to know workout at home was never going to stick
I worked in a consumer goods VC during this time and we couldn’t believe anyone was touching these companies, most were just instagram-aesthetic branding on cheap machines
Your best bet is just to stay away when something smells