It doesn't work like that. There was public intelligence mid summer last year and we were running transports full of weapons to Ukraine back in December. This was all over paid up commercial intelligence feeds that investment companies have access to. You'd have thought they would have the same info at hand. It was damn obvious where we were heading.

Same as the rise of Covid 19 was reported as far back as November 2019 on the same feeds.

The problem is no one competent is at the wheel and the default policy is keep the spice flowing and hope the fuck the problem goes away and when everything goes to crap, blame it on "external factors" or something.

Edit: I think really it's "politically inconvenient" to have issues at some times so they hide them.