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I don't know anything about finance, but how credible is Elon Musk in this regard?

I mean to be fair he does say that this is "total speculation" and a "guess" (which it is). So why is it news worthy? I think if you're so rich everything you say is published somewhere, but Elon Musk didn't become the richest man in the world by predicting economic downturns so I would be more cautious when "guessing".

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No I think he became the richest man in the world by making observations and acting on those observations successfully.

What he observes and acts on, and what he says publicly are not necessarily exclusive. Not saying he's misleading anyone here, but it's not unlike him to say something publicly to benefit himself.

I think he became A rich man (Not sure if he is still the richest) by working hard and creating companies that benefited greatly from government contracts and subsidies. The whole "Inflation has peaked" statement may be nothing more than an attempt to curry favor or mend fences with those same entities after getting into hot water with his recent controversial political statements.

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