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Comment by traveler01 | Hacker News Reader

A dark reminder that this could happen everywhere, everytime if your countries bank system collapses.

By that logic any bad thing could happen anywhere at anytime. Which is technically possible, but not plausible.

It's plenty plausible. Every civilization collapses eventually, sometimes totally and sometimes partially. The western Great Depression wasn't all that long ago, historically speaking. The USSR wasn't that long ago, at all. Etc., etc.

I mean the chances of you being dead in 100 years is 100%, but the chance of you being dead tomorrow is near 0%.

> Every civilization collapses eventually

Except the current ones.

Given enough time you’d expect it to happen, but the chances of it happening now are very slim.

Let’s say the Roman Empire lasted ~1,000 years.

If there’s a once in a ~1,000 year event and you warned every day of it, you’d be wrong 99.9998% of the time and right 0.0002% of the time. I’m not sure how useful a warning like that is.

In the multiverse, this is already happening to several nations called the United States of America.

Bank system collapses aren't equally likely everywhere. A useful risk assessment will take into account local conditions.

How does that work? For tail risk, you buy what you need. That’s why it’s tail risk.

Like, if I’m buying flood insurance, I don’t buy less insurance because I don’t think floods are likely in my area. I buy floor insurance to cover my house.

Does insurance exist for when a country's banking system collapses? (This is different from a bank collapse, where in the US, FDIC deposit insurance should do the job, if you're within its limits.)

It is called a negative interest rate and it is the most despised kind of insurance because everyone thinks they are the grifter that will get ahead this time and a negative interest makes grifters pay for the damages they cause to society which means they stop grifting. By grifting I mean delaying the usage of the medium of exchange until the breaking point of the economic system to get concessions from it which is effectively a bribe by society to cease this collapse seeking behaviour.

Saving for retirement seems normal and expected. Do you mean something else?

There are lots and lots of places where flood insurance isn’t available because flooding is likely.

All risk assessment involves local conditions. Determining what is tail risk and what is likely is a central part of the exercise.

> Bank system collapses

This is not just about bank collapses.

Cyprus was a money grab by the govt. Banks were fine.

There are also examples in this thread of folks getting their money frozen by govt decree.

A good reminder not to keep all your money in bank accounts. Diversify your holdings, keep some cash.

This is actually supposed to happen. Our system looks nothing like the system of ancient Egypt which lasted thousands of years. Our system has always collapsed within a modern human livespan. There are always exceptions but ancient Egypt was no fluke

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