Is commercial ICF realistic though? Each shot needs a carefully prepared fuel pellet. To get commercial power they'd have to fire a shot per second or so. That seems like a really expensive manufacturing operation to keep it going.
a) ruled out by the laws of physics, or
b) possible.
Commercial ICF is in the latter category as far as I can tell.
In other words, maybe?
AFAIK energy generation with ICF is much closer to the latter than the former.
- Will Capx be lower compared to a advanced fission plant. Almost certainty not.
- Will Fusion plan be significantly cheaper to fuel. Almost certainty not, uranium and thorium are available in waste quantities.
- Will it solve proliferation concerns? No, if you have a control of a fission reactors you have the potential to do all sorts of things.
- Will it solve the nuclear waste issue. Maybe slightly but advanced fission can produce waste that need to be stored for around 300 years and that is not actually that difficult.
And that is of course if you assume that the 100s of billions in investment required will not have be be paid back in any way. That is partly fair because fission didn't have to do that either, but there the investment is shared with nuclear weapons (for better or worse).
So I would say its closer to the second suggestion. I don't see a theoretical path of how a fusion reactor can be built cheaper then a comparable fission reactor.
But I'm not a expert on fission, I have heard of some fission that could be built very small but all actual real designs for suggestion of commercial fission I have seen do not fall into that category.
b) is two things
b1) possible and worth the cost
b2) merely possible
x) require preexisting conditions not present in the Universe, or
Also: "Here at SpaceX we specialize in turning the impossible into just late".
I don’t know why their plan is to just vent helium given the shortage although I imagine that’s a second order problem they can solve later.
Maybe the Belters will mine lithium from asteroids and send them back to earth in exchange for air and water...
At one point back in the 1960s some physicists were trying to make a neutron detector using lithium, and it wouldn't work. They eventually discovered the lithium they had purchased from a chemical supply company was nearly pure 7Li. It had been sold back into the chemical market from the waste stream of the government's lithium enrichment facility.
And then compare to that the very complex and expensive process of process of breeding tritium.
How does that make any sense?
Sure, fusion is about 3 order of magnitude denser, but fission is already incredibly dense. The increase density doesn't really benefit you in any practical way unless maybe if you are trying to do interstellar flight or something.