In my estimate, the common joe cannot distinguish between "real" and AI-generated art today. We're only seeing the first generation of AIs right now with the tech such as Midjourney, DALL-E 2, Imagen and Parti. I think it's pretty presumptuous to assume this trajectory would not continue to the point where most people would have a hard time identifying AI-generated images from real ones.

My work is in this area and I absolutely foresee some industries/arts getting decimated by the upcoming research in these topics - however, it's pretty hard to put the genie back in the bottle at this stage.