After adjusting for age, the english excess death rate is 5% above. It is the highest. But it also just came from being the lowest several months ago. How much natural variance is in this data. Is this moment noteworthy? Is it possible we're not seeing more people die sooner but rather a large chunk of people putting off death a few months all kicking the bucket now for some reason?
Twitter confuses me a bit but reading all the thread here seemed to hide some additional posts which were important. The rate of people going into the emergency room is normalish. The rate of people leaving it is slow but not clearly slower than normal. This does suggest the general problem is really that we don't know where to put all these incapable poor health old people.
But... If we assume that people are leaving the system at the same rate as before (afaict no data here), and that the health system had large inflows of patients from covid earlier, it seems likely that this is just the system slowly returning to equilibrium and dealing with that excess bulge of patients who entered and are hard to get rid of. The problem is probably not that patient outflows have gotten worse. It's just that there are more patients in there now because there were a lot more new patients shortly before now.
He's got one critical chart which shows that hospital occupancy % has been growing from 6% to 8% 2010-2020. It is now at 12%. But the data is missing for the pandemic period for some reason. So... that seems like an important bit. Is this problem correcting itself? Kind of depends on the rate of change we're seeing in this figure if the rest of the analysis is to be believed. But it's hidden and too short term to make a good forecast on just the recent months.