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Comment by dmitrygr | Hacker News Reader

  > it should get to 100,000 tx/sec.

I would love to see a citation for this. This is more than VISA handles by a factor of 600

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The tx/sec are guesses. Its too soon to know what the upper limits of blockchain TPS could be.

The arguments for massive TPS scaling are not that the Ethereum base chain itself will process them at transaction time, but that that L2+ chains will process transactions and settle on the ETH base chain, similar to what the ACH does.

The two scaling concepts to watch for are rollups (transaction batches that are rolled up into a single state change), and sharding (similar to database sharding.)

Here is a nice viewer for current TPS https://ethtps.info/

When requesting a “citation” I would recommend you provide the what bounds and types of information is acceptable to you.

> similar to what the ACH does.

ACH transaction volume is about 840 transactions per second [1]. 100,000 anywhere-to-anywhere transactions per second while making sure no money goes missing and is not double-spent worldwide is NOT a simple problem, definitely not something you can just handwave away and then claim as a reasonable "guess".

[1] https://gocardless.com/en-us/guides/posts/ach-key-stats-fact...

High throughout doesn't mean a high latency; one could process a million transactions per second or block and still need half an hour to verify (ie. reach global consensus on) the transactions within each block. Ideally ofc we'd have both, but if TPS was all that counted, the trade-off could likely be made (idk what I'm talking about).

"High throughout, low latency, or affordable fees: pick two."

Also it could well be broken into multiple rollups that mostly transaction within themselves, with more occasional transactions to and from the main chain or directly between rollups.

I think you're off a zero, that would put VISA at only 167 tps. From iffy sources I found in a quick google, VISA averages 1700 tps and max capacity is significantly more.

Rollups today can do around 2000 tx/sec. Their limit is block space, which will be multiplied by sharding (which in the current design, is more like RAID than actual sharding).

A great overview of the roadmap is here: https://members.delphidigital.io/reports/the-hitchhikers-gui...

All data i find shows visa currently doing 1700QPS and able to scale to 4000QPS with current architecture. Do you have a better source?

No, I agree. 100,000/1700 gives a factor of 60, not 600.

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