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Comment by wikitopian | Hacker News Reader

I'm not going to engage the question of whether or not it was morally or tactically correct.

This forum and the western public in general are not mature enough for that conversation. I am not having that conversation.

My statement is limited to the fact that the energy crisis is a simple and proximate result of the ongoing sanctions and not peak oil, climate change, or corporate greed.

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Not mature enough.

We're mature enough to know that if someone's argument is "you can't handle the truth" they should be taken about as seriously as the film I'm quoting.

Then I have a task for you.

Try to handle the truth that the west cannot geostrategically survive Russia becoming China's backyard. Look directly at that truth and let me know if and when you've handled it.

I mean, that sounds pretty obvious to me. I’m no geopolitical expert so I cannot picture what the world looks like in this scenario, but it would definitely be bad.

On the other hand, if the Ukraine war and related political stresses prove sufficient, we may actually see Russia split apart. That would make it so that China no longer has a single throat to choke with respect to Russia. It would likely have great knock-on effects with respect to nuclear MAD balance worldwide, since Russia has thus far been US’s largest rival there.

As a purely hypothetical, counterfactual mind game, how would you adapt your position if Russia were winning the ground war, economically stable, and firmly behind both Putin and the war?

I don’t know what to think of this scenario, other than that it has very strong parallels to the German invasion of 1939.

I’d feel horrified, helpless and powerless, coupled with some mixture of:

- “damn, it’s a shame they couldn’t hold out for longer”

- “at least it’s not my own country”

- “my home country is just next door, so I sure hope they’ll stop at Ukraine and don’t go any further yet”

- “I’m so lucky I moved abroad and live on the other end of the continent away from all this”

Russia splitting apart or potentially collapsing entirely is a doomsday scenario. If you’re cheering it on then you’re living in a fantasy land and will receive a very rude and radioactive wake up call if you get your wish.

I’m not cheering it on, I’m saying it’s possible despite most people not being aware of this. And I very much do not want a nuclear war, given the death toll.

> cannot geostrategically survive

Just seems like a 2nd cold war on steroids. Not sure why the west won't be the one to survive as opposed to Russia & China.

But also, doesn't that strengthen the argument that the west must intervene? What would you rather oppose, a weaken Russia + China (not to mention a stronger NATO alliance with Finland, Sweden & Ukraine) or a stronger Russia + China?

Out of curiosity, which societies do you think are mature enough to discuss such things?

China had a mature domestic conversation about it and decided that the proper course was to refrain from taking a side.

The Pope also made a thoughtful contribution, acknowledging that the matter is far more complicated than western media suggests, while decrying the bloodshed and calling for diplomacy.

China’s domestic conversation is limited to what The Party will permit. Calling it “mature” is…misleading at best, because it’s an incomplete, sanitized discourse under the threat of retribution for expressing the wrong sentiment.

Everybody in America who doesn't have the state department's line on the war is subject to censorship and retribution. They're just less honest about it here.

This is misleading if not outright false. Roughly half the country doesn’t have the state department’s line on war and regularly voices opinions as such. They do so without any state backed retribution or widespread media cancellation. What we do have is a strongly access-based media propaganda machine that tries very hard to push the narrative. But comparing what goes on in the US to what the conditions are in China is just invalid in almost every way.

Your opening line:

> Europe made a *major tactical error*

Your follow-up:

> I'm not going to engage the question of whether or not it was morally or *tactically* correct.

I mean, you already have.

True.

I made my own tactical error it appears. I had a good run with this account.

I think you're underestimating the willingness of people to suffer financial hardship this winter to divorce themselves of Russian energy. People in the West really don't like dictators invading their neighbors, and certainly there's a long standing distaste of Russia generally.

While people are also blaming corporate greed for the price crisis, everyone is well aware that the sanctions are causing pain for both parties. There's no political or social support for going back into Putin's arms, so here we are.

You must be very confident with your calculation, as a miscalculation would empower and embolden domestic political factions that have been at the periphery of western politics for generations.

Putin's conviction that the West was filled with spoiled brats who would kowtow when it got cold is the more impactful miscalculation.

> I think you're underestimating the willingness of people to suffer financial hardship this winter to divorce themselves of Russian energy.

Are you sure it will be just one winter?

In general, Europe is not great at: 1. Moving fast 2. Agreeing on and completing big projects.

When people are dying, red tape can be trimmed down a little. COVID is nothing if not proof of that.

The infants, children, and frail who are most imperiled by this plan to freeze them to death on purpose don't have equal access to the internet debate over whether it's worth it to do that.

Mmm, well the frail certainly do, I'll agree with you on infants not having internet access though.

I guess we'll have to see if infants are freezing to death in the flats of London this winter. My guess is probably not.

This forum doesn’t attract a large number of people with the expertise to have the conversation. The non-western public isn’t any more mature than the western public.

Fair point.

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