I mean, that sounds pretty obvious to me. I’m no geopolitical expert so I cannot picture what the world looks like in this scenario, but it would definitely be bad.

On the other hand, if the Ukraine war and related political stresses prove sufficient, we may actually see Russia split apart. That would make it so that China no longer has a single throat to choke with respect to Russia. It would likely have great knock-on effects with respect to nuclear MAD balance worldwide, since Russia has thus far been US’s largest rival there.