Comment by jemmyw | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jemmyw | Hacker News Reader

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If the war is over next year (I'm not optimistic, but fingers crossed) and Ukraine prevails, which seems to be a certainty, then the US and EU will plough money into Ukraine's recovery. They'll want an institutionally stronger country there regardless of the diplomatic solutions found to the war/borders etc. That will be a shot in the arm to the eastern EU economy and probably quite positive to the world as a whole.

Yeah I agree that the future looks bleak for Russia, actually regardless of how well they fight. They lost, long term, when they didn't take Ukraine in 3 days. They showed a weak hand and I suspect even their ally China will treat them as a second partner and with some contempt. Perhaps the best outcome would be the Russian government falling again and this time western powers actually helping out, but I doubt they'll collapse in a way that lets that happen, or that society there will accept help, or that western countries would be interested in helping anyway.

China will decline, they're not in a great place demographically. And this is my personal opinion: China had the opportunity to become great, with just a little more freedom they could have leveraged their hi-tech manufacturing base and encouraged innovation. But instead the leadership got scared that they were losing power and sent thing in the wrong direction. It's not that they aren't innovative, it's just that has been tempered enough that they won't take the lead and all the other issues - demographic, geographic etc will take them downhill. Which is a shame because instead of a (slightly) freer world we get nationalism and unpredictability; who knows now what they'll do if they can't deliver on better living standards and an ever improving economy? Invading Taiwan would be stupid from many perspectives, but as a way to drum up and hold support of the population maybe it works?

Its interesting because I would argue for the exact opposite of everything you say (almost). Which makes for a nice discussion.

I don't think the war will be over until US and EU decide to stop sending weapons to UKR. Now, in terms of UKR prevailing, no matter how you spin it, they lost 20% of their country and the majority of their fighting ability if not for external support. Doesn't look like prevailing to me. Basically any chance they had to be "independent" state are gone, either they are occupied or in heavy debt/reliance to the EU/US.

Yes future looks bleak for Russia indeed, but the same is the outlook for EU. A broken relationship with Russia never worked with Europe historically, and for good reasons. Also, Russia cannot be "helped" from the "west", its not "yet another" country. Whoever I know that has been there, can confirm that its a special place with dynamics that are not entirely understandable by western values.

I don't see China declining, the opposite actually. Yes COVID hit them (which for me screams "Cui bono" to the whole covid thing, but thats off topic) and they are doing bad demographically, but their struggles are not in vacuum. Europe is getting hammered and its even worse demographically, US is in a "esoteric mode" dealing with problems from within.

> I don't see China declining

You don't seem to follow recent economic developments then

> Basically any chance they had to be "independent" state are gone

Ukraine is more independent now than it ever was 2013 or 2021 and all is telling that it will be even more so after the war, so I'm not sure what you are smoking there

1. I meant declining in a more generic/long-term view 2. Independence is underpinned by a combination of military and economic power which adds up to enough power to take your own policy decisions. For now UKR has all the independence it wants to take any decision that is aligned with western goals. That (might) be aligned with their interests right now, giving the impression of independence, but it won't be always so. 3. I was trying to make conversation, your comment about my smoking probably tells more about you.

The war will be over when Ukraine takes Crimea. Russia only cares about the gas that is found there, which can entirely replace Russia's deliveries.

The future looks better for Europe/Ukraine than you'd expect over a 4 year term.

Not so much for Russia. Putin made Russia a pariah state like North Korea

Nobody knows when the war will be over. Most of us didn't even know there would be a war, even while Russia was amassing troops at the border.

While I'm not sure about Europe, Ukraine seems lost: they're at the mercy of the IMF and had to give up their economic independence. In the best case, they can emerge like Bulgaria, Romania, etc in a decade or more - moderate brain drain, industry bought off, moderate corruption. In the worst case, they'll suffer massive brain drain, all their industry will be bought out or lost, high levels of corruption and they'll be reduced to providing labour and raw materials for the EU.

The war will likely strengthen the nationalist and extremist factions in the country and make it even more difficult for the government to reach a compromise. It's not clear if the fledging democracy will survive this war. Beforehand there were concerns that the president has too much power, now with political parties banned it's uncertain how a meaningful opposition would look like.

On the military side, even ignoring that they've lost a large chunk of territory, they are still neighbouring Russia. And despite the optimist messaging, Russia has many ways to make Ukraine's life harder or even snuff it out. From targeting energy and industry, to chemical weapons and even nukes.

Ukraine isn't lost, even after the war multiple countries now are mentioning which cities they are going to help rebuild.

Additionally, in 4 years time they will have insane profits from gas, where the pipelines have already been laid. Europe will be able to stop all payments to Russia and change it to Ukraine.

In the future, they will probably do similar preparations like Finland did ( since Finland got invaded hard also in the past).

Russia is already the pariah state. And while Europe is harboring fleeing Ukranians, we are tightening ties and exponentially tieing their future WITH Europe ( eg. The English language).

Ps. The future of Ukraine tied to Russia would have been a joke, just check Chechnya and Syria. They are way better off if they are open to it. Just check GDP growth of Poland, that's what partnering with Europe means and can do.

Whether they can push Russia out I don't know, that probably depends more on Russia than Ukraine. Russian people aren't exactly signing up in droves to push this invasion - a little probably, but stories coming out from the Russian soldiers now are on the side of "we didn't know what we were doing, we didn't want to be doing it." Ukraine, on the other hand, has had more recruits than they could handle, because people want to defend their country. Putin's view was that the people of Ukraine wouldn't stand up, didn't see themselves as a country, didn't like their own leadership, would revolt etc. and he was wrong. Ukraine is now making counter offensives. Whether those succeed or not, it's remarkably different from the predictions of many analysts that Ukraine would be taken over in days or weeks.

I disagree with your line about independence. America funded the rebuilding of Europe and Japan after WWII. It is way more in the interests of us in the west to have independent states rather than vassal states. This is where Russia is failing - if they make Ukraine a vassal state and install a government the people there will forever agitate and cause trouble, it will always be a thorn in their side. They'd have to attempt Russification once again, and how well has that worked out?

Small states are never independent completely, but internally independent and being rebuilt by western allies is surely a lot better than vassal state of Russia. Especially as the majority of Ukraine wanted to loosen ties with Russian and join the EU - thus why we're where we are.

China has a worse demographic problem than Europe. Fastest ageing country. Yes Europe has some similar problems, but the worst place in Europe for that is Russia.

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