My understanding so far is that industry will freeze (as needed) so that all the reserves can be used for people. I get a feeling that this crisis is becoming more media-gorging-on-crisis-clicks than it is an objective analysis.
When industry dies the social safety net dies, it will happen when the Euro looses its value, in which case money printing will no longer be possible without hyperinflation. And a devalued Euro is only useful if there is still an industry left to export things.
Once that happens people will actually freeze.
https://www.ft.com/content/46d3c3fb-e79a-464c-afe1-7079d3e4f...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-17/energy-cr...
You are most likely talking older and poorer people. Some will maybe get sick due to insufficient money to heat, some will die from monoxide poisoning from using unfamiliar and improper stoves.
Slovakian ministers are talking about people having to go into the woods secretly to cut down wood to set on fire. There are countries where they are fully expecting people who work for a living not being able to afford to heat their homes.
People are going to die over this.
Yes.
An average of 9,700 deaths each year are believed to be caused by living in a cold house, according to research by National Energy Action (NEA) (UK).
Why do you think that with less heating, or the same heating cost 4x the amount, the situation would be better?
France has the capability to selectively cut off some neighborhood from the grid and they plan to do 2 hours rotations if need arises.
I don't know if they are going so far as moving people out of their house to gather them in a larger building that is easier to heat.
Quite frankly, I don't expect to hear about the real plans before mid-october.
I know the government reached some industrials which were usually left off energy offset plans (basically processing factories), so this might be serious, but honestly, people heating with electricity should be fine.
If I had to guess, I'd say much more than usual, but not a calamitous amount like millions or anything. Every winter, elderly who can't take good care of themselves succumb to cold or illness. For one winter, I'd say that most average people will be able to survive, albeit uncomfortably doing things like burning through their remaining savings or getting deeper into debt, huddling in bed together or wearing thick layers indoors, and finding trees to chop down for wood if desperate.
This prediction is just for 1 winter. If this situation lasts until the next winter, people/governments will be even more screwed financially by then and the outcome will likely be calamitous then.
> My understanding so far is that industry will freeze (as needed) so that all the reserves can be used for people.
Real economies aren't video games that have a pause button. We learned during Covid that shutdowns that are labeled as temporary are not so. Supply chains get ruined: machines and spare parts and needed chemicals get harder and harder to find. Businesses can't afford to pay rent and wages for months with no income and have to shut down. Truly skilled employees with real domain knowledge use the shutdown to retire early or change careers and their knowledge of processes is lost. Etc.
And this isn't a normal time where the governments of the world can really go further and extend themselves to really help and minimize the impact: they blew themselves out financially overreacting to Covid and are insisting on blowing out whatever remaining financial resources they might have to endlessly signal their virtue against Putin.
Just to get people's attention.
Shit will be fine.
For highly payed ivory tower folks, yes. For everyone else, it's going to be difficult. Energy is everything in modern society.
Not sure what others are doing.
Depends on what you mean by "fine", too.