At this point, I’m expecting both stagflation and a flat market for years to come. Odd that mortgage rate is above 6%, inflation is high, layoffs are happening, and yet the White House is pretending it’s not a recession and won’t say the word.
Can the Fed destroy demand/cool growth via the benchmark rate faster than workers leave the labor force (strengthening the labor market for those who remain)? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The fed is fighting to undo the QE it over did during the pandemic
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WSHOSHO
Why would they even try to undo 14 years of asset purchases? Their goal is only to reduce the growth in nominal spending in the economy so that it grows at around 4% annually (yielding an inflation rate of 2%). The goal is not to return nominal spending back to where it was in 2008, which would involve nearly a 50% cut from current levels.
Current mortgage rates have little to do with recession, if at all.
Inflation is a problem, and it could absolutely lead to recession in the near future, but it hasn't yet. This is why the White House is "pretending" we're not in a recession.
All of the long term trends still point to low inflation like they did before Covid. Slow population growth, technology, and boomers aging out are strong forces keeping inflation in check. IMHO we are going to go back to worrying about deflation in the next 12 months or so.
The CPI was 255.7 in 2019 and estimated to be 294.4 for 2022. That's a 15% increase in three years in an index that's acknowledged to somewhat under-report inflation. CPI could flatline (zero MoM) for the next two years and we would still be at 3% annual inflation over five years, which is above the Fed's target, in addition to all the asset inflation we've had that the CPI doesn't really track. Absolutely nobody who pays real bills will feel like inflation has subsided.
> IMHO we are going to go back to worrying about deflation in the next 12 months or so.
There's a lot of money to be made in the STIRS markets if your prediction comes true.
Which means it's high over the last three years. It doesn't mean it's high today.
I've definitely altered my purchasing behavior because things "feel" too expensive, and a few months of 0% MoM inflation isn't going to change that. Either in two years I'm going to finally get used to a cart of groceries costing $250, or prices come down sooner.
1) Aggregate month-to-month inflation metrics were flat/low due to gas prices falling, but many important categories were still quickly inflating. Notably rent, but also food.
2) The reason people normally reference 12 month inflation windows is because many things, like energy prices, are very volatile month to month. It is going to take time to really see the trends.
3) For things that skyrocketed like food, people are hoping to actually see the prices come back down.
So, yeah, you are correct on your numbers, clearly. But as an non-expert, I'm not really sure the current trends are positive. I think they are still pretty troubling.