There is nothing dumb in Adobe's deal to buy Figma.
They are buying market dominance, not the product.
They are buying market dominance, not the product.
Future freemium competition springing up isn't solved by this one remarkably expensive deal (which suggests Adobe is desperate, and a whole other topic). In another year or other relatively short amount of time, Adobe will need to keep executing and succeeding in acquisitions of freemium competitors who can spring up with weed-like ease. If Adobe fails to secure one the better ones, and Microsoft or any other semi-capable mega titan scoops up the competition, Adobe is the directly at risk of it's position eroding and ultimately systematically getting crushed in the seas of the open market.
All because Adobe continually chooses to rely on an easy $7-8 billion in ARR from CreativeCloud, rather than wise up and realize they need to evolve their strategy to better align with reality.
I know people at Adobe and have worked with several who are actually very good, so I'm a little perplexed. From the outside, it's hard to understand why the organization is so dysfunctional. Is upper management stuck in 90's style thinking? I wish I could be a fly on the wall at some of these meetings (probably they are mostly super boring, so only the [likely ongoing] pivotal moments where they fail to explore better paths forward, please ;)
There's a long term risk of another company building market-share with younger or poorer designers, but that's small, especially with how light-touch they seem to be with piracy. (Torrents of the Adobe suite are trivial to find, and have been online for years without disruption.)
Figma took 10 years to get to this point. Even if someone else can get there in 5 years, as an executive at Adobe, do you care?
And the danger to Adobe wasn't Figma in its current state, it was Figma taking its performant web stack and starting to attack features in Photoshop.
This is the kind of deal which encapsulates perfectly what is wrong with the state of modern capitalism. This deal should be blocked by the FTC and Adobe should be forced to deal with a plucky, upstart competitor who could displace them.
Even if it doubled, it’s still a weird investment of $20B. Can’t read the FT article but is Figma even profitable?
From a Fortune article:
> Figma’s products “address a $16.5 billion market opportunity,” and this year, they’re expected to add $200 million in net new ARR [annual recurring revenue], surpassing $400 million in total ARR by the end of the year,” Durn said.
This was a desperate move from Adobe to stay relevant, but if they let Figma grow and be run independently, it may have been worth it - we will see.
I think it would be a mistake to bundle it with CC though. I suspect part of Figma’s rapid ARR growth is how it’s very, very easy (automatic) to go from a free seat in your org to a low cost paid one, if you add someone as an editor to a Figma or Figma file. As a result many people in the org get converted to paying seats, not just designers