There is no such thing as "partial mobilization".
There is a law on mobilization, but who cares about laws there days in Russia.
The main objective of this mobilization is to call up to 5mln conscripts in the army.
This morning, people already started to receive summons in person.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/sep/15/putin-th...
What do you mean by this? If you have 2 million men available in a full mobilization but call up only 300.000 this seems partial?
So anything short of that is a "partial" mobilization, which would be basically be any actual mobilization.
High tech equipment in good numbers is what decides outcomes these days when armies clash. Plus Ukraine can and does use insurgency on their lost territories, no army ever including the best one won against this.
With the referendum in Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia is reframing the conflict as happening on Russian soil. That allows them to declare it a war and open the door to nuclear retaliation.
Mobilising and calling it a proxy war play with this line. It’s basically Russia telling the west they are serious about escalating if they keep pushing.
I think that's the message Russia believes it is conveying. The information I think they are really signaling (outside of the rhetoric), and what I suspect Nato sees, is that Russia is conceding that it cannot win and hoping its bluff will freeze the conflict, which I don't think it will do.
I agree they know they can’t win but they now need an exit ramp. That’s what I personally read in their posture.
It would probably be wise to give them one.
I'm really not sure what else people who say this mean.
The alternative is escalation and that doesn’t seem to end well. It might be what the USA wants - they are unlikely to be the ones nuked after all but Europe would be bearing the most of it and that’s not something I wish.
The problem with your line of thinking is that Russia needs to lose. It's citizens need to understand that it has lost. Germany after WWI didn't and it gave rise to the stab in the back myth and nationalism. If Russia is allowed to spin anything as a victory here, it and it's citizens would learn nothing and it will just be a truce. Not to mention how extremely unfair would be to deny Ukraine it's integrity to placate Russia, a violent genocidal invader.
Nuclear countries must not be allowed to take what they want and threaten nuclear destruction if anyone tries to stop them.
That would be a terrible outcome.
The reverse of what you are writing actually happened at the end of WW1 by the way. Germany definitely understood they lost. They were humiliated, were dragged to Versailles to sign an armistice treaty and had to pay an insane reparation amount. That’s what gave rise to nationalism.
Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished.
There is no point in dragging them in the mud further than strictly necessary. Why back them in a corner to the point they are tempted to do the unthinkable?
Technically the armistice is in Compiègne, the peace treaty is in Versailles (as revenge for the proclamation of the German empire there after the Franco-Prussian war), but yes, however
> Germany definitely understood they lost.
This is false. Germans were getting glorious victories propaganda up until Ludendorff said they can't win, and threw the hot potato at the Kaiser and a civilian government was formed to seek a peace. So from a citizen's perspective, there were privations but they were winning until suddenly there's a civilian government, communist rebels and we have surrendered (to be later humiliated). Germany wasn't occupied. The German people didn't understand they lost, really, and why. Hence Ludendorff's stab in the back myth and nationalism proliferated.
> Russia army has been mostly destroyed. Its economy is faltering. Its ability to wage war is greatly reduced. Its standing on the international scene forever diminished.
But Russians don't know that because they're being fed propaganda to the opposite effect. So if today Putin declares withdrawal, Russian people won't know what happened and why, so we'll be back at it in a few years time.
The point isn't to make Russia suffer for the humiliation, but Russians need to understand they've lost and all the horrors they've inflicted while losing. And yes, they should pay for it.
The alternative isn't escalation, it's what we've seen to date: a long, grinding war.
There are plenty of things to be negotiated here: the lifting of economic sanctions, what happen to Crimea and the Black Sea port, how far will Ukraine integration into the EU go and how fast.
I don’t understand what the USA is aiming for in Ukraine. The American media have generally been far more bellicist than they usually are for foreign regional conflicts since even before the invasion. There is something at play which I don’t entirely grasp.
This should be only between Ukraine and EU.
Appeasement rarely works.
You understand he will do it again and again, until he cannot or he is dead. Lets work on the former part for now by draining his military of any capabilities.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970_Polish_protests
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_1976_protests
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Lublin_strikes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacification_of_Wujek
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerzy_Popie%C5%82uszko#Assassi...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Polish_strikes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solidarity_(Polish_trade_union...
Similar things were happening in Czechoslovakia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velvet_Revolution and other European countries under Soviet occupation.
If they want a future they have to fight for it.
He did it in very smart way, I leave him that (plenty of KGB experience to learn from). Hitler and other dictators were proper amateurs compared to how Russia is run today. Nobody on their own has enough power to stand against him. He has a separate branch of paramilitary forces (on top of Wagner, GRU and KGB forces) that answer only to him and is there only to protect him.
What it would require is massive conspiracy and cooperation of literally all of his underlings to topple him down, which is unrealistic to ever happen. Lone shooter/poison deliverer from his closest circle may have the best chance, but I presume he has multiple safeguards there too.
In the end, aside from talking to a bunch of Russians, I don't know the place. So my understanding is incomplete I'm sure.
By their logic it would allow them to declare it a Ukrainian Special Military Operation...
I am not sure if you were making a joke or actually misunderstood.
And it's not like they did it because that's the law they have to work with. Just yesterday they made extensive last-minute changes to many laws - especially these concerning refusal of mobilization, refusal to fight, and surrender in combat (they made it all criminal).
Wow... That's actually quite terrifying how fast these things can go south.
You either served in the army or went through higher education and got away earning a leutenant rank along the way.
In reality, the state will call in all men between 20 and 27, sparing Moscow residents for the time being.
about that https://twitter.com/KramarenkoMari3/status/15725291528337612...
> In reality, the state will call in all men between 20 and 27
- source ?
- all men between 20 and 27 is only 300 000 ?