As I understand it, it comes down to a couple of things.
Heat pumps are much more efficient when providing lower temperature flows, their efficiency drops off significantly where the delta between the heat source (air or ground) and their flow temperate is higher.
When an oversized heat pump cycles it is going to quickly reach a higher temperate and shut off where as a correctly sized unit will cycle for longer. So I guess simply it comes down to having the heat pump operate in the most efficient range for that property for longer vs. short spikes at temperature where it is less efficient.
Most heat pumps have a variable speed motors so they can modulate their output to match a desired flow temperature but this only operates within a range relative to the size of the unit. So if the unit isn’t correctly sized for the required heat output to be in its range then it has no choice but to cycle inefficiently.
A couple of sources I found helpful:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
Most of the consumer advice is very low level - this Heat Geeks site seems better that most, but it still lacks enough detail for me to get into the numbers: https://www.heatgeek.com/3-steps-to-maximise-your-heat-pump-...