Most likely, Italy and eastern Europe, who are net importers. Germany is a net exporter, so they would only have blackouts out of solidarity.
This winter Germany will suffer major shortages of power.
Gas storages will be almost completely full and the usage has already dropped a lot.
Maybe next winter. But by then we probably have a replacement.
I guess some of your neighbours have years worth of coal ... and toilet paper, of course.
https://news.err.ee/1608726511/estonia-grid-connected-to-eur...