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Comment by AzzieElbab | Hacker News Reader

Russia is losing the war. Annexation is pretext for using nukes to stop Ukraines advance. Despite being a kleptocratic dictatorship Russia is strangely oriented around laws and procedures. This gives them an excuse to act in according with Russias military doctrine which states that nukes can be used when Russian territory is under attack.

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But it really isn’t anymore of a justification then Russia has had for months to use nukes in Ukraine.

Since the start of the war, Ukraine has hit.

- Belgorod (Russian land) multiple times with both missiles and helicopters

- Crimea (Russian occupied “annexed” land) multiple times destroying aircraft at multiple airfields

- Rostov (Russian land) a oil refinery was set on fire by kamikaze drones

The only difference now is that Russia is decisively loosing the war.

This annexation is certainly an escalation, but I'm skeptical whether it's a pretext for nuclear strikes. Tactical nuclear weapons are mainly useful for knocking out military bases and troop concentrations. At this point the Ukrainian army is well dispersed and dug in, often in close combat with Russian forces where the risk of fratricide would be high. Russia could use strategic nuclear weapons against Ukrainian population centers in an attempt to break their will to fight, but Putin has to know that would foreclose any possible option for ever resuming normal trade relations with the EU and many other countries. He's getting desperate, but I don't think he's that stupid.

Whether they use nukes or not cannot be known. They are just telling themselves and the world that their hands are untied

I don't think it's likely that he will use nukes but it's part of the strategy to threaten to use nukes

I wonder if it’s a way for him to claim victory before ending the operation. Maybe it’s a way out.

Not really because there's no way that Ukraine is going to allow these areas to remain in Russian and hands. Especially given atrocities they've seen in places they've recaptured. Especially since they're clearly winning

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