Yep, many internal pressures in EU for talks with russia (due to energy prices), and people wanting their poltiicians replaced, because they're the only ones standing between the people and cheap gas. On the other hand, US now can sell overpriced gas to EU while still hurting russia... if the pipes reopen, russia gets money, eu gets gas, US loses overpriced exports.

So yeah... us and eu would be my first suspects

How is that analogy supposed to work?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident#Second...

Yes, the US administration knowingly misrepresented the facts but in the end the only thing that happened was some US ships firing at shadows in the fog they believed to be enemies. Nothing that had not happened before in far more dramatic fashion: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident