Comment by libertine | Hacker News Reader

Comment by libertine | Hacker News Reader

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>Russia's greatest leverage was Europe needing their gas, and eventually agreeing to stop supporting Ukraine in order to get the gas turned back on.

That boat has sailed some time ago - you don't need to destroy something that's guaranteed it won't be used for decades probably, if ever again.

No country in the West will do any trade with Russia under Putin. There's simply no turning back when you throw diplomacy and international laws out the window, and hide under nuclear threat.

In my point of view this was clearly a message that ANY gas that passes through that sea might have the same faith - even in NATO territory.

It wasn't by chance that it happened the same day a new gas pipe was opened between Norway and Poland: https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-polan...

Not to mention that if anyone wants to PUSH GAS PRICES UP, this is a great way to spread panic in the markets "oh no!!! that door wont open again!!!".

I only see positives to Russia in this event, not a single positive for anyone else.

It's hugely positive for Ukraine. They'd have done it on day-one if it wouldn't have looked bad. Less income for Russia, less for Russia to divide its allies with.

This is a strong negative for Russia. They had control of the pipeline and thus could dangle the offer of gas, now they cannot. Their leverage is gone.

That positive was gained when Russia closed NS1 supply, which was due to end on German terms.

After that win, it was set in stone that Germany was done with Russian gas.

"done"? why would you just make shit up? 42 million cubic meters per day are moving from Russia through Ukraine to Germany right now.

I see huge positives for Ukraine and by proxy the US by removing leverage from Russia.

What leverage?

Europe needs gas. Russia has gas. If EU citizens get cold enough and broke enough, they could entice their governments to give in and stop supporting Ukraine and get their gas turned back on. Idk about you, but if it came down to my grandmother freezing at home or a Ukrainian grandmother living in east Ukraine having to say she's now Russian, the Ukraine grandmother is going first.

Not the point. EU cannot buy anything from a country that openly threatens to bomb EU with nukes no matter which grandmother dies where.

It can. Maybe the word you're looking for is should not.

Yes, they could. They'd just declare that people freezing to death in hospitals is worse than the currently theoretical danger of nukes.

But the EU cannot buy gas that doesn't have a pipeline.

Not only will this keep Germany from lapsing in support but it frees all the resources they'd have wasted in-fighting about the issue.

I'm no expert in geopolitics, or international law - but what country would make any deal with the current Russian government?

A government that held the energy sector as an hostage to pressure other countries while they violate international law.

Do you see any possibility of everyone sitting at the table, sign new treaties on top of those that were violated, or new contracts that were torn? Because I don't.

There's no credibility left on one side - Russian government openly stated that they do what ever they want, and no law applies to them because they have nukes. What government on their right mind would do any deal with them? Besides China, India, and Afghanistan, that are getting great deals out of this, while remaining neutral.

>If EU citizens get cold enough and broke enough, they could entice their governments to give in and stop supporting Ukraine and get their gas turned back on.

Whatever may come, we've had it much worse in the past, and we made it through. I doubt anyone will freeze to death, like the propaganda is spreading, at worst some people won't be very cozy.

>Idk about you, but if it came down to my grandmother freezing at home or a Ukrainian grandmother living in east Ukraine having to say she's now Russian, the Ukraine grandmother is going first.

Sometimes it's about doing the right thing, even if it has a cost. You might not want to pay the price, others are, because it's better to stop the warmonger now, than latter at a MUCH higher cost. We should have done it in 2008... or 2014... now we're paying the price for it.

>what country would make any deal with the current Russian government?

One that really, really needed gas. So, not summer Germany, but winter Germany sure.

This is disgustingly sanguine and diminishing: this war is not about the country code next to a bunch of grandmothers’ names in a database somewhere.

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