I anticipate people misguidedly objecting to the 2008 comparison due to the traumatic baggage of that era.
no need to go that far out
the only similarity would be the 1 year aspect matching the sample size of 1 in that comic, but the driving forces are the quantitative tightening which are a greater sample size, and the velocity is important
there's better jokes
if mortgage rates want to stay 100% over Fed Funds rate, or 100% over 30yr treasuries, we'll have 8-9% by end of year, with many borrowers already being offered or experiencing 10%+ by then
Growing up my parents rate was 12% and in the early 80s rates got up to over 17% [0].
It is very possible for the era of cheap money to end across the board.
But current home prices don't need to drop. The average price needs to drop. That means more housing. Likely ends up meaning some drop or stagnation in current prices, but you don't need to shift down 40% to reach the goal.
Housing in my area is only a little above the 80s price after adjusting for inflation. Of course, the 80s price is nationwide average, while my given price is only the local average.