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This appears to possibly be a freebooted version of this link:

There's an acknowledgement at the end:

Reprinted with permission from Sean Raymond’s blog PlanetPlanet.net.

It’s the same author reported on both pages.

It's not the credit they're typically after, but the traffic.

There's no way that this is free booting, nautilus is a decently sized publication.

Author by the way is a very active researcher in planetary science. Man has h-index > 60.