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All predictions like this have a serious error bar. For one, as things get cold, the US and/or Europe might decide for whatever reasons "screw it, let Russia win". For another, things may always work out differently than the predictions, with effects being much slower or less catastrophic as the people adapt. Third, propaganda exists on all sides.

Don't worry they just illegally annexed 4 parts of Ukraine. They have something to celebrate until their impending doom.

And still we don't know what other measurements will be taken after the annexation.