Facebook scrambles to escape stock’s death spiral as users flee, sales drop
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
They're trying to juice ad numbers by jamming more Tiktok style reels into people's IG feeds, which will likely cause an even bigger exodus among IG's biggest accounts.
I'd hoped the virtual world would start out and be built organically by people because it was fun, useful and anyone could make a little money, just like the early internet.
Foisting this mall world on us is not going to work. I hope they adjust.
The "Metaverse" might be a flop, but what about other VR games? There's tons of good ones out there.
And if you have a decent gaming PC, you can use your Oculus with it and play all the games on SteamVR.
A big part of the problem with attempts to create a metaverse, and the reason Facebook's efforts look so crude, is that it's very hard for ordinary people to create high quality and performant 3D content. Getting solid framerates in AAA games requires the art and tech teams to work very closely together, and for art to be constantly measured against performance goals in every scene the player could view. Also most AAA games are set indoors to limit draw distances. This kind of hyper-coordinated and planned effort just isn't compatible with a free-wheeling metaverse, so SL constantly had problems with performance.
For example, most people imagine the metaverse as starting from an open Earth-like world, therefore it is largely outdoor spaces. This implies potentially huge draw distances especially if you want a geographically contiguous space like SL had. Additionally, people loved to create objects that had way too many polygons, or textures that were too large, or more subtle problems like buildings with translucent windows. All this stuff seems fine and simple if you're a regular end user but to 3D rendering experts it's just a disaster because it requires so much overdraw.
Another key problem SL had was that the entire world was mutable, because the act of playing the game was the same thing as the act of building the game. AAA games rely heavily on large batch computations that optimize essentially static worlds with very carefully controlled mutation layered on top. For instance static lights are much cheaper than dynamic lights because you can 'bake' static lighting into textures. SL/metaverse isn't compatible with this sort of optimization process because at any moment someone might decide they like the light a different color, or in a different place, or to script it.
Finally, you have the tension between openness and professionalism. The utopian metaverse vision assumes a kind of roughly equal ability to create things, not just a small elite class of pro builders. The problem is that the better you make the world building tools, the quicker your population splits into a tiny creator class and a much larger passive consumer class. For instance SL had (has?) a small economy of people make and sell objects, in particular "clothes". Although in theory anyone can make anything, the more sophisticated your metaverse becomes the more quickly it becomes a consumer oriented culture. For a social network like Facebook this is problematic - the whole reason they got so huge is because social networks are great levellers. Twitter is of course the epitome of this approach in which you are literally prevented by software from writing anything long enough to be truly outstanding, but Facebook's design was very similar. There is no such thing as a professional tweeter or professional Facebook posters (the much more image-oriented Instagram does have professional posters).
So the ultra-crude Mii style approach is probably not the result of stupidity or lack of vision but rather an attempt to learn from prior metaverse efforts:
- Low quality graphics make it easy for people to create content.
- It sets expectations; this is not a world trying to look AAA quality and failing, it's not even trying.
- It frees up rendering resources to chew through extremely unoptimized content at a good frame rate. Especially vital if you're trying to achieve VR framerates!
I think that's the attraction for early adopters who build much of the foundations. Sort of like crypto, web3, DeFi and all that right now. A Wild West were only the smart survive and you can buy drugs and guns if you know how.
Zuckerberg's vision of the Metaverse is blessed by human resource managers who insist everyone follows the code of conduct and no one has genitals. It's bland and comfy, like a mall.
I don't think Zuckerberg enjoys having to police speech and behaviour and having to carefully design around that. It costs him time and money. More likely he does it for fear of losing money when the media reports on Facebook groups that spread hate, stir up racism, or share revenge porn.
The early internet having been so organically developed for fun and utility happened because money wasn't yet involved/in charge.
At this point could there ever again emerge any major new technology that wasn't either developed by a huge corporation or quickly acquired by a huge corporation?
Will we ever see a scenario again where such an important technology is allowed decades to emerge while it's ignored by industry for being too academic, too early, too much for nerds?
Today, even Wordle couldn't stay independent. How could anyone build a multiverse popular enough to have a network effect but not get invaded by spam, money, predation?
The reason not everything was a mall was because it wasn't yet mainstream and there was a years-long head start before monetizing it at scale was solved. Today, the monetization (and other predatory) patterns already exist and will be ported over to any metaverse from the start.
Any metaverse will resemble Facebook or something equivalent. Discoverability will resemble Google or something equivalent. Community interaction will resemble Reddit or something equivalent. I don't see how this would be avoided.
The “innocence” wasn’t as innocent as you remember. The only reason it wasn’t monetized was because global payment systems weren’t really a thing yet. People sold things online anyway, it was just riskier than it is today. Today you can absolve your risk in a 2,5% + €0.30 flat rate, thanks to those trail-blazers of yesteryear.
Then people fixed bugs, and saw their sales decline. So they unfixed those bugs and consumers called them “dark patterns.” Some people started doing it on purpose, after hearing about fixing those bugs and what they did to sales.
Back then wasn’t so great. VR won’t be so great either. At least until we figure out how to spend more than a few hours in it, comfortably. Then it might get better.
Amazing that an iOS update did this though.
This is the classic problem of building on someone else’s platform. I know facebook tried their own phone and bubble based android launchers, but they seemed to give that up too easily. In comparison to the money being spent on meta, attacking their weaknesses on the device front might have been a better avenue. They could have bought their way in rather than building it.
“The age problem”: Young people aren’t using Facebook at all and are using Instagram less, but the success of both platforms as advertising revenue bonanzas is predicated on usage by the youth demographic.
“The innovation problem”: Facebook hasn’t invented a new hit since the blue app itself and its other successes were all acquired.
“The metaverse problem”: They’re betting the company on AR/VR, but it remains to be seen whether that’s going to be a big thing.
“The antitrust problem”: No summary necessary.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/22/briefing/facebook-metaver... [2] https://daringfireball.net/2022/08/facebooks_problems
It is truly refreshing to have this kind of transparency.
I have faith in FB. It is a good communication/community tool. They have to tone down the VR thing a bit. It is not the time for VR yet.
Also, this may come as a surprise to you, but, in many other parts of the world, privacy is low in priority to solve, especially in developing countries.
Facebook has one customer: advertisers and billions of products.
The only way for them to fuck this up is to screw their advertisers (mostly small businesses) to the extent that THE ADVERTISERS LEAVE. Yes users leaving is bad, but if they continued to evolve their ad product it would easily be possible to compensate for that... except they aren't about evolving things so much as they are about breaking things... At their customers expense (advertisers).
Having spent many many years with a Facebook ad budget measured in percentages of a multimillion dollar gross, which is now zero due to being sold bot impressions constantly, and having my ability to remove those bot impressions... removed.. My guess is that at this point I am not alone.
Going from 8% gross to zero is going to hurt if it happens across every small business in the country.
If you own FB stock... Consider yourself warned. It's WAY worse than Musk's estimate of 20% bots on Twitter (because the bots are written to... Well... Engage with ads and thereby avoid being banned by generating revenue for FB).
The Metaverse will not solve this problem. Ever.
Seems like all the big platforms are running off users. I use to watch my podcasts on youtube, now its at least a 3rd on rumble.
Its kinda neat that the big corps politics are spawning up tons of other platforms.