Of course you may have only became bearish on nuclear when the costs got high, but there are a large number of people who were bearish before then, which is what made costs high.
[0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...
Of course you may have only became bearish on nuclear when the costs got high, but there are a large number of people who were bearish before then, which is what made costs high.
[0] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151...
In my opinion, rather than spending the many years and billions of dollars on regaining the edge in nuclear, we should expand the capacity of the cheap and clean energy sources we have access to today.
We don't currently have a viable complete renewable solution. Nuclear is much better for the planet than fossil fuels and is the only option to bridge the gap required to operate the current renewables.
That's a strong declaration without any solution in sight for nuclear power-generated waste: https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/nuclear-waste
https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-c...
Because the lobbies underlying nuclear power in solid fuel rod processing is a lucrative government boondoggle.
All the nuke proponents say "we are losing all the old guard!". I actually think this is a feature, nuclear needs to be reformulated and reassessed from the ground up without all the political and military biases, and once they have stable cost profiles in wind/solar to actually target.
If they can actually make a competitive reactor once wind/solar stabilizes, likely at 1/2 to 1/3 the current real dollar cost.
And then, you nicely suggest that all pro-nuclear people somehow _must be shills_ (as if, uhh, nuclear people just love destroying the world, I guess?) that really is ridiculous and not a too charitable reading of the opponents.
Do you know that Weinberg and the ORNL people advocated for increased safety in the nuclear industry (which their reactor design had fundamental advantages over all other designs)?
The organizational religion of nuclear power was that it was safe and had no chance of failure. You can choose to disagree on my characterization of the nuclear industry, but the political wars with "The Greens" has counter-radicalized nuclear proponents.
ORNL and Weinberg saying their nuclear reactor was superior on safety leads to the inevitable follow-up implication for anyone listening that other nuclear reactors... WERE NOT.
Thus the ORNL director for MSR was sent to forced retirement/fired (fired from a government job!), ORNL funding was totally axed. Kirk Sorensen claims that MSR research was forbidden in public universities at a policy level, so no one would touch it. Sorensen is a pretty rabid LFTR advocate, but the fact that only in 2022 after 60 years, finally SOMEONE is doing a research reactor that fits in a closet? The fact there has been ZERO research programs in MSR tells me that Sorensen is probably right about the prohibition.
I believe that the Military was also involved in this, because they needed their isotopes for weapons, or to maintain popular support for nuclear weapons. You can't have these people undermining public confidence in civilian nuclear power, what follows after that is the hated peacenik "Greens" then getting nuclear weapons banned.
Anyway, yes it does seem conspiratorial, but with nuclear tech which required so much governmental push/funding in the beginning, and now has SO MUCH regulatory apparatus above it that was an organizational outgrowth of the original nuclear research government agencies, YES, there is a historical and effective bias against the ORNL design.
Some of that is practical: the ORNL and LFTR designs are totally different that the entirety of the world's solid fuel designs. It would require AEC regulatory fasttracking, and a ton of budget. And if something doesn't have government funding in the nuclear world, it is DEAD.
Anyway, China has a prototype MSR reactor coming online. Oh look! MSR projects are coming out of the woodwork everywhere! What a coincidence. Los Alamos is doing materials research! Some Texas university got clearance to boot the first US research reactor in fifty years! Huh, funny how that works.
So yeah, sure it might be conspiratorial or uncharitable, but this was probably a trillion dollars in budgeting (inflation adjusted) over 20-30 years that was at stake.
I know it seems like I'm anti-nuclear. I think fission power is so effing cool. I think LFTR is the coolest design I've ever seen. I also see that nuclear is fundamentally not competitive with the current approaches, and I don't think that is NIMBYism or excessive regulatory at the core: I think the designs don't scale and issues with nuclear waste and safety are offloaded, avoided, corner-cut, etc.
And if nuclear has to compete with solar/wind, those "hidden costs" would be handled even more poorly. So a reactor design that uses 99% of fuel, is meltdown proof, scalable, and can even reprocess old spent rod waste, well, to me that or something that also lives up to that is the real path forward. Scalable (i.e. closet sized) seems to also be a fundamental requirement to competitive economics, although I read a good post on how big honking reactors are what are needed to make the economies of scale work, not small reactors, but I personally suspect that view is polluted with existing huge-effing-solid-fuel-dome reactor design bias.
I'm just a dumb fuck programmer that reads this stuff in his spare time. I would love a cogent response from a nuclear scientist that knows the ORNL design in depth to give me really good reasons why it isn't commercially viable. But again I think the entire nuclear industry and university feeder system is all solid fuel rod, because it's the only practical/career/feasible thing to study. But ORNL had a working reactor. Was it commercializable? Would it stand up to industrial/production use? Are molten salts truly impossible to contain long term? Is neutron degradation of the liquid fuel's holding tank too problematic? Are the chemical separation processes too hard to do economically?
Anyway, MSRs would be an industrial paradigm shift. It's a total rebuild of the entire nuclear power industry. It's every incumbent nuclear power interest being shown the door, or having a time clock. It's overcoming whatever instiutional echo the Nixon Administration left when it assassinated the ORNL MSR in a massive budgetary knife fight. What could possibly cause a sea change?
Oh right, the Chinese are ahead of us in it.
It's so funny, the Chinese really are the new evil empire, but they are the fundamental economic and investment driver that produced competitive solar and the batteries that will power the mainstream EV revolution. And they are the ones that have a functional MSR coming online.
Well, whatever works.
I'm not aware of any significant battery based storage system deployed at scale that solves this problem. There are some large battery banks but none even close to the scale required. It's a hard problem as it would require a huge increase in global manufacturing.
I'd like to be wrong here. I'd love it if it was possible to build an affordable grid based on 100% renewable generation. It will be possible one day. I look forward to that day.
Most of the storage, in the end, will not be batteries. Most existing storage is pumped hydro, because the dams were already there. There are lots of alternatives: underground or underwater compressed air, liquified air, underground hydrogen, tanked ammonia, buoyancy, mineshaft gravity.
Most places will keep a few days' ammonia that they can burn where they do NG today, and order more if it looks like they may need it, and can't book transmission line power. Other times, they will synthesize ammonia for sale.
Regional storage of underground hydrogen is already under construction. Hydrogen synthesis efficiency is now well over 90%, up from 60% very recently.
Until ammonia synthesis ramps up in the '30s, they will burn NG at need, without apology.
From what source? Hydrocarbons?
Anyway that efficiency will not be important.
Storage as a separate business is not viable beyond a few years, so investment is limited. Original producers of energy will have their own storage, and prices will level out. Excess generation capacity (e.g. noon) after recharging storage will be devoted to synthesizing liquid fuels and desalination, which serve unlimited demand.
By the time there is enough renewable generating capacity to charge storage, storage will be very, very cheap. Right now, it costs more, so money produces much better results building generation capacity and factories for storage. As the factories are completed, production ramps up, and costs fall.
There's also no grid in the world that runs on wind/solar+storage, it's obvious from looking at California that it would take 20+ years to arrive there.
Before you have built a thing, you have to build it. After you build it, you have it. Building will be a big job, but nowhere near as big as building nukes instead would have been.
The good news is that renewables start displacing CO2 emission almost immediately after ground is broken.
It would be stupid to build storage without renewable capacity to charge it from. You spend on that first.
EVs are still at, what, 1% of cars on the road, and only a small percentage of dozens of transport modes by air, land, sea, from single person motorcycles to busses or even container ships.
Grid storage still basically is an "EV batteries on land". This is going to change as well.
WHich is funny because the fundamental issue any nuclear plant has to deal with isn't the current price of alternative energy + grid storage. The REAL problem is that in ten years when the thing comes online, what will the price of alternatives be then given the cost improvement curves of the last decade?
I would hazard a guess that alt energy will be half of natural gas turbine by then (and natural gas turbine is already untouchably cheaper than nuclear), and probably 2/3 the cost with functional grid storage.
I believe home solar will be cheaper than grid natural gas turbine in 10 years too. And that's without carbon taxes.
A lot of countries are already pretty far down the path of going carbon neutral. Mostly without building or planning to build nuclear plants. They are a lot less necessary than some nuclear proponents would have people believe.
Energy storage is actually a fairly simple problem. There are at this point dozens of different ways that are being used commercially to store energy. Including of course a wide variety of battery types, pumped hydro and other gravity based systems, thermal storage, synthesizing hydrogen and other gases/liquids that can be burned later, etc. The main challenge is not storage but cheap storage. Or cheaper storage as combined generation and storage bids are fairly common these days and already way cheaper than nuclear already. Scaling the deployment of these solutions over the next few decades will drop cost further.
And of course energy can also be moved around via cables over long distances. The main challenge is not just generating enough power but getting it to where it is needed. Long distance cables even out local fluctuations in solar and wind performance.
If you extend the demonstrated empirical experience curve for solar assuming PV dominates world energy production, cost might decline to just $0.01/kWh.
BTW, nuclear isn't going to power the world with current thermal reactors (there's not enough uranium), so hand wringing over storage should be matched by that for the more difficult problem of making breeder reactors safe and affordable. So far, they've been more expensive than current commercial reactors, and they suffer from safety issues due to Pu and 233U producing fewer delayed neutrons, so they operate closer to prompt criticality.
(Unlike breeders, storage is actually getting installed on grids around the world these days, and costs are coming down.)
Also could you point me to any meaningful and scalable storage implemented or being implemented anywhere in the world? Also what about materials used for solar and wind? Both requires insane amounts of material where a very significant part of that is rare earth.
As far as I've seen the best bet for wind so far is power to x . X because we haven't figured out of it should be hydrogen, ammonia or something else, both of which would be very impractical as we've got no infrastructure to support it and it's also very inefficient in reality you'd loose like 80% of the energy generated so you'd have to build so much more capacity.
Operating a 3 GW(th) LWR requires about 200 tonnes/year of natural uranium.
6000 such reactors (needed to produce the 18 TW of primary energy currently used by the global economy) would therefore consume 1.2 million tonnes of U per year. The resource listed on that page would last five years.
So, either much larger uranium resource would be needed, or breeding would be needed, or both.
As for your other questions:
The first skates close to the position that no storage solution can ever be built unless it has already been built. This sort of reactionary attitude is just mindlessly obstructive, and does not reflect an attitude of constructive discussion. One can look at various storage technologies and see they scale very well.
As for materials in solar/wind systems: they are materials that are used in general society at much larger scale. The world makes 2 billion tonnes/year of steel, for example. If global industrial society can produce these materials, it can produce them for the renewable energy systems needed to power it. If it can't, then not even nuclear can save it.
Recycling fuel from LWRs to make MOX is not the same thing. It would only extend that 5 years by a couple of additional years.
Seawater uranium extraction has been demonstrated at the gram scale. It would have to be scaled up by something close to a factor of a trillion to power the world. Also, powering a single 1 GW(e) reactor would require a collector field on 170 square kilometers of continental shelf, in an area with good ocean currents. The levelized power/area would be considerably worse than PV.
I will add that running a reactor on bred isotopes (233U, various Pu isotopes) presents an additional problem. All of these have considerably lower delayed neutron fraction than 235U. This means the reactors will be operating much closer to prompt criticality. One could resort to subcritical reactors, but that means adding a 100 MW (or so) 1 GeV linac to each to add the needed extra neutrons. And of course no such accelerator driven reactors have ever been built.
I’m afraid this is only true for the US, let’s not forget almost all of Europe is as north as Canada or north US.
In order to compare the cost we cannot just compare the price to install a certain capacity. You must also factor in how much extra capacity you need to build.
When we look at the Germany[1], on the best month, their solar produce half of the installed capacity and solar never goes higher than a third. And that’s for the best month.
Germany has already invested 600 billions, does it need to go 5 five folds ? Maybe less as the costs are decreasing.
It seems like that money invested in nuclear would produced much more and prevent spending what’s starting to look like an entire gdp invested into renewables.
We can estimate the cost of storage to deal with intermittency and seasonality, and renewables will likely come in cheaper than nuclear by the time any nuclear plant whose construction was started today would come on line.
As modeling gets better, renewables look better, as there are more and more ways found to work around the seasonality and intermittency problems.
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=983...
> With every iteration in the research and with every technological breakthrough in these areas, 100% RE systems become increasingly viable. Even former critics must admit that adding e-fuels through PtX makes 100% RE possible at costs similar to fossil fuels.
> The fact that South Korea is the only country to exhibit this trend has led some experts to speculate that the cost data (which comes directly from the utility and hasn’t been independently audited) has been manipulated and we shouldn’t draw conclusions from it.
Cool, let's get the price ratio between the early PWR reactors in the west and the ones started in the early 90s (just after the peak of spending) then and multiply it by current costs to get a enstimate.
That comes to what, $20000/kWe?
current economic model assigns $0 to skilled and experienced workforce. In reality it is worth billions.
This productive asset is degrading or beind destroyed through union busting, precarious working conditions, wage fixing, etc.
Look at Germany. They are the first to really destruct the first power plant and it will take 20 to 25 years. Everything has to be checked.
Germany could handle their power load, but not theirs + france.