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Comment by UncleOxidant | Hacker News Reader

Where are these initial votes coming from? They show Bolsonaro about 7% ahead of Lula. But only 1.5% of the vote is in, so I'm guessing it's from more right-leaning areas so far? (given that the polling has consistently showed Lula about 10% head of Bolsonaro in the last couple of months)

Edit: follow-on question: are the other candidates there pulling more from Bolsonaro or Lula?

Edit2: Looks like both Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet would draw votes form Lula based on the info on them from Wikipedia. They're drawing about 7% of the vote between the two of them so in a runoff between Bolosonaro and Lula so it seems like most of those votes would go to Lula. Still would be very close.

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I reckon a better picture should start to get painted at around 70-75%.

Yes, they are coming from regions of Brazil where Bolsonaro was expected to go better according to the polls.

Small, far away cities, say, in deep Amazon and in northeastern semi-arid, take more time to be counted. Lula electorate is more overwhelming in those areas, as they have more poor people that suffered a lot with current policies in Bolsonaro term, like relatives dying without suplementary oxygen in the pandemic, due to mismanagement.

I would guess there are a lot of poor people in the cities like Rio de Janiero as well.

Yes, but in urban areas, poor people are targeted by evangelical churches, which are all supporting conservative candidates. So it’s really hard to predict if a disadvantaged area will vote left or right.

Hmm, that's really fucked up, poor, and kept that way through the grace of god I guess

Overseas polls that closed earlier. Mostly middle class that moved abroad but still vote.

I would say that candidates pull votes from both. People are very ashamed of voting to one of the greater evils in the first round - in the second round votes should be evenly distributed.

From reading the wikipedia entries on Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet it seems like they would definitely draw more votes from Lula and that in a runoff those votes would overwhelmingly go to Lula - but I'm not too familiar with Brazilian politics, am I missing something?

Simone is from a centrist party. She tried forming a "third option", but failed to gain traction. I do think that she has a solid position for 2026.

Ciro is from a traditional leftist party, and worked in the Lula government. In the past few weeks he has been resorting to nationalistic and more right-wing talk (pro family values, against identity politics). So the Ciro from the beginning of the election would draw votes from Lula, but not the one in the end. Some trivia: Glenn Greenwald has a close relationship with Ciro.

Richer areas always get counted first.

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