Based on other comments in this thread, your hypothesis (while interesting) might fall short. Apparently there is a legal stipulation that if bank financing falls through, Musk is personally on the hook to make up the difference.
If the stipulation is in place, Musk can't use the bank's failure to finance as a scapegoat for the deal falling through. He can't walk away from the deal paying a 1 billion dollar penalty, he will have to buy Twitter at the original agreed upon price.
That being said, if your hypothesis is valid and the deal falls apart due to lack of financing -- buying some put options on Twitter right now could prove to be an extremely profitable move.