I'm wondering how well Google is going to fare against the next wave of things like GPT-3, DALL-E, etc. The quality of content+link farms, comment spammers, etc, is going to continue to improve.
Beware--it's prone to bullshitting. This one time I asked it for the symptoms for pulmonary hypertension: shortness of breath, chest pain, lightheadedness, and fainting. Check. Then I asked it for a citation...
It linked me to an article on hemorrhoids.
https://journals.lww.com/md-journal/fulltext/2017/08040/asso...
We may be closer to human-level AGI than I thought.
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I think so too, but I think it's still pretty far out.
In order to do this, Google's AI-generated text needs to be better than the web results they return today, 100% of the time. It's the same reason why Google has never made 100% of the first 10 results ads. If users make a search and advertisers aren't bidding on the keyword, Google will return 0 results, and the user is less likely to come back and make a new search.
Google's AI needs to consistently be better than the content created by webmasters. Across billions (trillions?) of different search phrases.
Maybe there is an intermediary step where Google uses AI-generated text in a small subset of searches, and then expands out gradually. But there is so many unique searches it seems like a tall task.
Also, if Google displaces webmasters with AI-generated content, what incentives do websites have to create the new content Google will need to train their AI on to answer whatever humans want to know over the next 50 years?
Linking to verified sources (research papers, official websites, verified social media accounts) when writing about these topics might make this easier. LLMs will then be able to understand if one if misrepresenting what was stated in the linked sources or not.