I don't even know what the worst/best case scenarios would be here.
If he's right about Twitter, now he has essentially a toxic asset and everyone knows it. But he made a bad deal in the worst way. No one is buying it from him. And people are going to be more hesitant to deal with him in the future. Because he's obviously not doing due diligence.
If he's wrong, it's not a good look for him either and while someone may eventually buy Twitter off of him, he'll likely have trouble with other deals still. Because of the diligence issue, and his conduct through this ordeal.
Like, who is coming out of this deal happy?
TWTR shareholders are being paid $54.20 per share for a company worth probably only $30/share (maybe less, now that Elon spent months trash talking the deal)
TWTR shareholders are going to be throwing parties all around the country with a big windfall. I know a bunch of online people who also put option plays on this.
I don't agree - I think there's a win for the Twitter shareholders, for example. There's also a win for precedent here, where a billionaire can't just say "j/k no I don't want it" because they've realised it's a bad idea.
> Like, who is coming out of this deal happy?
It doesn't really matter who is happy IMO. I'm not one for revenge justice, but nobody needs to be happy if one person makes a series of incredibly dumb decisions, signs multiple legally binding contracts along the way, and then changes their mind after the fact due to information that they claimed was the reason they were undertaking the deal in the first place.
The $1B is for a different scenario; he doesn't have the option to back out of the deal voluntarily.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/13/elon-musk-cant-just-walk-awa...
> A reverse breakup fee paid from a buyer to a target applies when there is an outside reason a deal can’t close, such as regulatory intermediation or third-party financing concerns.