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Actually… A probabilistic event should be given as a combination of percentage and timeframe, e.g. 1% for the coming year, which means 1 such event in 100 years.

"on average"

we need Doomsday Bayesian Update

So it should measure in half-life?

If we're not supposed to be scared into action about the most existential threat facing humanity right now when is being scared justified?

Because a percentage makes so much more sense? And a percentage what would that exactly be?

What "clock" doesn't tell a time? Even a broken one is right...

> a percentage.

Not a logit?