I think you’re think about the revenue functions for spot instances in isolation of the larger supply base of all instances. Spot instances are already a result of revenue management of a fixed supply base that increases in discrete increments over time. Instance capacity overall usually leads instance demand, shortage costs are very high in data centers.

Spot instance capacities are a function of the all instance capacity for the same type and on-demand instance usage. Spot instance pricing can influence the quantity demanded of on-demand instances of the same type, and vice-versa.

Anyhow, there’s no way we can figure out whether you’re right or wrong with any reasonable level of certainty.